WDXS31 PGTW 191500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.7S 60.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 213 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DUDZAI) WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT POSITION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ASSESSED CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS HAS REVEALED A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 26-27 C, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF LESS THAN 10 KTS, AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 47 KTS AT 190955Z CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 190900Z CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 191100Z CIMSS D-MINT: 39 KTS AT 190955Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 35 KTS AT 191130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AROUND THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE STR LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. FOLLOWING TAU 24, TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE STR AXIS, AND BEGIN ITS TERMINAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE IN SPEED OF APPROACH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH ASSISTANCE FROM AN EQUATORWARD EXTENDING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSING LONGWAVE TROUGH, BECOMING COMPLETELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU 72. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STEADY INTENSITIES BETWEEN 50-55 KTS INTO TAU 48 AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED SUPPORT WITH LOW VWS BELOW 15 KTS AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. FOLLOWING TAU 36, VWS IS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE 15 KTS WHILE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DECREASE TO BELOW 26 C DURING THE SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION INTO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, WEAKENING SURFACE INTENSITIES BY TAU 72 AND BECOMING FULLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ALL JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS ILLUSTRATING THE EXPECTED ROUNDING OF THE STR AXIS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, AND A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, AND ALIGNED CLOSELY WITH THE MULTI-MODEL TRACK CONSENSUS. REGARDING INTENSITY, ALL JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS CHARACTERIZE STEADY INTENSITIES BETWEEN 50-55 KTS INTO TAU 48, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WAS PLACED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC AND COAMPS-TC SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH// NNNN