WDXS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 
018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.1S 62.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 315 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY REVEALS TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TC) 14S (DUDZAI) WITH ITS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NOW
NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED, WITH MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL PARAMETERS, WITH
WARM (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH AND EAST.
A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IS PLACED IN THE INITIAL POSITION,
GIVEN THE CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE LLCC IN ANIMATED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 182125Z
   CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 182100Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 182000Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 34 KTS AT 182330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S IS PROJECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS, STEERED BY THE
DEEP-LAYER FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO ITS SOUTH. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS
STR IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE THE STR ITSELF 
RETROGRADES EASTWARD. BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO 
ROUND THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE, ADOPTING A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. DURING THAT STAGE TC 14S WILL 
ACCELERATE MARKEDLY ON A SOUTHEASTWARD VECTOR AS IT UNDERGOES 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE PHASING OF THE CYCLONE WITH AN 
AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDEBAROCLINIC TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH WILL EXPEDITE 
THIS TRANSFORMATION, LEADING TO THE SYSTEM ACQUIRING FULLY 
EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICSBY TAU 72. WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY, A 
COMBINATION OF ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF VWS 
TO BELOW 15 KTS OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, AND RESIDUAL WARM SSTS WILL 
PERMIT A PERIOD OF STEADY INTENSITY, WHILE THE SYSTEM BECOMES 
INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EVENTUALLY COMPLETES 
ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: A HIGH DEGREE OF AGREEMENT PERSISTS BETWEEN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS IN REGARD TO THE TRACK GUIDANCE
RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE ONLY
OUTLIER CURRENTLY IS NAVGEM WHICH REFLECTS A SLIGHTLY WIDER TURN ALONG 
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. JTWC 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND CLOSE TO THE
ENVELOPE CONSENSUS. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE GUIDANCE SPREAD REMAINS 
TIGHTLY PACKED, WITH A NARROW SPAN OF SOLUTIONS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KTS 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, WITH HAFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL. 
JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LAID WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY 
BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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