WDXS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING 
NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.8S 65.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 435 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DUDZAI) WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE MAJORITY OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
BEEN SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. LOW-LEVEL
CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WRAPPING INTO THE TIGHTLY
WOUND CENTER WHILE THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE REMAINS LARGELY CLOUD
FREE DUE TO EXCESSIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AROUND THE NORTHERN 
QUADRANT FROM THE WEST. ALOFT, ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS 
PERSISTED SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, WITH A DISTINCT POLEWARD 
CHANNEL, ALLOWING FOR STEADY INTENSITIES AT THE SURFACE NEAR 50 KTS. 
THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOW MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE DUE TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 20-25 KTS, LARGE SWATHS OF PRESENT DRY 
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRAL VORTEX, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
LINGERING BETWEEN 26-27 C. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBSERVABLE LLCC ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON SUBJECTIVE AGENCY INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 68 KTS AT 180924Z
   CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 180900Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 71 KTS AT 180800Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 39 KTS AT 180924Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 42 KTS AT 180930Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH.
DURING THIS TIME, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR
WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY, ALLOWING TC 14S TO BEGIN THE EXPECTED
TERMINAL POLEWARD TRACK. NEAR TAU 48, TC DUDZAI WILL BEGIN
PROGRESSING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO TAU 72 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE STR NOW LOCATED TO THE EAST. FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 96,
TC 14S WILL BEGIN ITS TERMINAL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS SPEED OF
APPROACH SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH A
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW, ALLOWING FOR THE TRANSITION
TO FULL EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY TAU 96. REGARDING
INTENSITY, ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, DECREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR TO LESS THAN 20 KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 26-27 C WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSITIES UNTIL TAU 72.
FOLLOWING TAU 72 AND THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, TC 14S IS
FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 40 KTS BY THE COMPLETION OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (TAU 96). 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
(AI) TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ALIGN VERY CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY OUTLIER THAT REMAINS IS
NAVGEM, WHICH TAKES A WIDER TURN AROUND THE STR AXIS BETWEEN TAU 48
AND TAU 72. HOWEVER, ALL JTWC CONSENSUS TRACKERS RE-ALIGN BETWEEN
TAU 72 AND TAU 96, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72. ALTHOUGH THE CROSS-TRACK ENVELOPE REMAINS
TIGHTLY GROUPED INTO TAU 96, THE SPEED OF APPROACH THROUGH
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGES
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES,
LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BETWEEN TAU 72
AND TAU 96. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE JTWC GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES
TO ILLUSTRATE A NARROW ENVELOPE OF INTENSITIES BETWEEN 45 KTS AND
55 KTS INTO TAU 72. FOLLOWING TAU 72, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECASTED BETWEEN THE MAJORITY OF JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO TAU 72, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER DUE TO 
THE EXPECTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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