WDXS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.8S 72.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 125 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 865 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DUDZAI) AS A VIGOROUS STORM AT NEAR SUPER-TYPHOON
STRENGTH. DUDZAI INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DESPITE THE
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THE
SYSTEM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY AND THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED A FEW MILES. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 14S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 
OFFSET BY A DRIER ENVIRONMENT OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE 
CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 
COMPACT EYE PRESENT IN ANIMATED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIMSS AUTOMATED 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   DEMS: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   FMEE: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   FIMP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 104 KTS AT 152230Z
   CIMSS ADT: 109 KTS AT 160000Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 111 KTS AT 160000Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 128 KTS AT 160000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED TO
DEPICT 14S CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130KTS AT
TAU 12, VICE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH DEPICTED A WEAKENING
TREND BEGINNING IMMINENTLY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AT WHICH POINT THE STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL SHIFT AND INDUCE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 14S IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK
INTENSITY AT TAU 12, JUST BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD. AS DUDZAI
TRACKS FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD, IT WILL ENTRAIN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
DRY AIR INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLANKS. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LEADING CAUSE OF WEAKENING, THOUGH
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS INCLUDE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. 14S IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM AROUND TAU
96, WHICH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE STORM. ADDITIONALLY, A 151742Z
89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF DUDZAI
ATTEMPTING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), SIGNALED BY THE
DEVELOPED DEEP CONVECTION EXTENSION FROM THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND THE STRIP OF LOW EMISSIVITY OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL THAT MAY
DEVELOP INTO A MOAT. THE EYE DIAMETER SLIGHTLY EXPANDED IN ANIMATED
EIR, SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY. SHOULD 14S BEGIN AN ERC, IT WOULD
LIKELY FAIL TO COMPLETE THE FULL CYCLE AND ULTIMATELY INCREASE THE 
RATE OF WEAKENING, AS 14S HAS VERY LIMITED TIME TO COMPLETE THE CYCLE 
AND REINTENSIFY BEFORE BEGINNING ITS TERMINAL WEAKENING TREND AFTER 
TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
STRONG AGREEMENT, WITH ONLY MINOR SPREAD IN BOTH THE CROSS-TRACK
AND ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU
72-120. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 14S
PEAKED AND SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DEVIATES FROM MODEL
GUIDANCE, AS PREVIOUS INTENSITY ANALYSES AND INCREASING DVORAK
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT 14S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALSO SUPPORTS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE 
NEAR-TERM. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST CONVERGES WITH MODEL GUIDANCE 
AT TAU 72, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE WEAKENING TREND FOR THE LATER 
FORECAST TAUS. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED 
WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72 AND MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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