WDXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.9S 72.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 588 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DUDZAI) WITH A PINHOLE EYE AND ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. 14S HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY, AFTER RAPIDLY 
INTENSIFYING FROM 65 KTS 30 HOURS AGO TO 120 KTS CURRENTLY. A 151742Z 
89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE PINHOLE EYE WITH THE DEEPEST 
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES 14S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-
10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY A DRIER ENVIRONMENT OUTSIDE THE 
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND THE 
AFOREMENTIONED 151742Z MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK 
FIXES AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES, SUPPORTED BY THE SAR DATA FROM 
THE 151337Z RSAT-2 AND THE 151344Z RCM-3 PASSES, RESPECTIVELY.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A COMBINATION OF SAR DATA FROM 151337Z
RSAT-2 AND 151344Z RCM-3 IMAGES

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   DEMS: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   FIMP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 101 KTS AT 151336Z
   CIMSS ADT: 102 KTS AT 151800Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 105 KTS AT 151700Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 101 KTS AT 151742Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 115 KTS AT 151800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AT WHICH POINT THE STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL SHIFT AND INDUCE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 14P IS ASSESSED TO BE AT ITS PEAK
INTENSITY CURRENTLY, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST THROUGH TAU 36, 
FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING AS DUDZAI TRACKS FARTHER SOUTHWESTWARD, 
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THE LOSS OF THE ROBUST 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BETWEEN TAU 72-120, DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO 
CROSS SOUTHWARD OF THE 26C ISOTHERM, HASTENING WEAKENING FROM THERE 
ON. ULTIMATELY, THE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND MARGINAL SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BEYOND TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
STRONG AGREEMENT, WITH ONLY MINOR SPREAD IN BOTH THE CROSS-TRACK AND
ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120. 
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 14S HAS PEAKED 
AND IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. 
THERE ARE SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE RATE OF WEAKENING, INTRODUCING
UNCERTAINTY TO THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN