WDXS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.2S 76.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 644 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DUDZAI) WITH A STRUGGLING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) FLARING AGAIN AFTER OVERCOMING THE DIURNAL MINIMUM. DRY AIR
BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST IS STIFLING DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. DUDZAI IS
ATTEMPTING TO RE-FORM AN EYE, EVIDENCED BY THE COLD CLOUD TOPS
FIGHTING TO WRAP AROUND THE VORTEX, AND A 141308Z WSFM COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT 14S HAS MAINTAINED A
SYMMETRICAL MICROWAVE EYE. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED COLOR COMPOSITE 
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE PGTW POSITION FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIMSS AUTOMATED 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND OBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITIES LISTED 
BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   FIMP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 69 KTS AT 141530Z
   CIMSS ADT: 65 KTS AT 141830Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 71 KTS AT 141830Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 62 KTS AT 141830Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR PRESENT ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 14S WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE IT REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE STR CENTERED TO ITS SOUTHWEST. AROUND TAU 36, THE STEERING
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN TO THE SOUTH OF 14P, CAUSING
THE STORM TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE STR WILL BUILD
A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED EXTENSION EASTWARD OF DUDZAI,
FURTHER EMPHASIZING THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK MOTION. 14P WILL
CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY, REACHING ITS PEAK OF 80 KTS NEAR TAU 24 AS THE STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH.
FOLLOWING TAU 24, HOWEVER, THE TROUGH WILL PASS AND THE OUTFLOW
CHANNEL WILL BE LOST, ALLOWING THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO HAVE A
GREATER WEAKENING EFFECT. 14S WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS INTO THE LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ALL RELIABLE MODELS SUGGESTING A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU
36, FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. AS A RESULT,
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM TAU
0-72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS
ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT, THOUGH ALL MODELS SHOW A PEAK INTENSITY
NEAR TAU 36-48 FOLLOWED BY CONSISTENT WEAKENING. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IN ASSESSED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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