WDXS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.0S 77.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 607 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 14S STRUGGLING TO FORM A RAGGED EYE WITH FLARING COLD
CLOUD TOPS ATTEMPTING TO WRAP AROUND THE AXIS OF ROTATION. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY COMPACT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT,
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
(5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE FEATURED IN ANIMATED EIR.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES
LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   FIMP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 111800Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 45 KTS AT 111700Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 50 KTS AT 111800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S (DUDZAI) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT STEERING STR TO ITS NORTHEAST.
TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH 14S STALLING
AROUND TAU 24. BETWEEN TAU 24-48, 14S WILL ENTER INTO A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY THE LARGER STR TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A SMALLER STR TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THE STR TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND ASSUME THE STEERING INFLUENCE BY
TAU 48. ERRATIC MOTION NOT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST TRACK MAY OCCUR 
WHILE 14S IS QUASI-STATIONARY AND TRANSITIONING STEERING INFLUENCES. 
THE STR WILL CAUSE 14S TO CURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. BEGINNING AROUND 
TAU 72, DUDZAI WILL TRANSITION STEERING RIDGES FOR THE FINAL TIME, AS 
A RIDGE TO THE STORM'S SOUTHWEST BUILDS. DUDZAI WILL TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, DUDZAI IS 
FORECAST TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, REACHING A PEAK 
INTENSITY OF 95 KTS; HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION 
REMAINS A VIABLE POSSIBILITY. A PEAK INTENSITY HIGHER THAN 95 KTS IS 
LIKELY SHOULD 14S UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. DUDZAI IS FORECAST TO 
APPROXIMATELY MAINTAIN INTENSITY BETWEEN 75-80 KTS THROUGH TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, WITH DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF
14S TRANSITIONING STEERING RIDGES AROUND THIS TIME, THOUGH ALL
MODELS AGREE ON A PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. AS A RESULT,
THE JTWC NEAR-TERM FORECAST FROM TAU 0-72 IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT FROM TAU 36 THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AI MODELS, COAMPS-TC, AND GALWEM
ARE THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS OF THE MODEL FIELD, INDICATING A SHARP
WESTWARD TURN FOLLOWING THE QUASI-STATIONARY PERIOD AND MAINTAINING
A DUE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. GFS, ECMWF, HAFS-A, AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICT A BROAD WESTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 48 AND
A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER. ADDITIONALLY, GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO DEPICT A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
AROUND TAU 96-120, INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY THAT DUDZAI WILL
CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120.
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 14S WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH MULTIPLE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AIDS REACHING CRITERIA. FOLLOWING TAU 24, MESOSCALE
MODELS DEPICT A BRIEF WEAKING TREND FROM TAU 24 TO AROUND TAU 60,
FOLLOWED BY A REINTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 120. GLOBAL INTENSITY
AIDS DEPICT DUDZAI TERMINALLY WEAKENING BEGINNING AROUND TAU 24. AS
A RESULT OF THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LATER FORECAST TAUS, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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