WDXS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HAYLEY) WARNING 
NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.5S 122.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 85 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 10S (HAYLEY) WITH DEEP CONVECTION STILL WRAPPING
AROUND THE COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF OBJECTIVE INTENSITY AIDS AND AGENCY FIXES LISTED BELOW.  
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAKENING MAY ALREADY BE 
OCCURRING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE DAMPIER PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS DRY AIR ENTERING THE CORE OF THE 
VORTEX, AS THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS BECOMING LESS UNIFORM, WITH MORE 
DISTINCT GAPS IN BETWEEN. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS MODERATE AND 
SUPPORTIVE, WHILE WIND FIELD INTERACTION WITH LAND IS BEGINNING TO 
HINDERING DEVELOPMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 290051Z METOP-C ASCAT DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED DIRECTLY
TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   DEMS: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 75 KTS AT 300700Z
   CIMSS ADT: 65 KTS AT 300700Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 68 KTS AT 300700Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 81 KTS AT 300517Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 55 KTS AT 300700Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 10S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK FURTHER EASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
AFTER THE INITIAL LANDFALL OVER THE DAMPIER PENINSULA THE CENTER
WILL RE-EMERGE OVER CYGNET BAY WHILE CONTINUING TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE CIRCULATION WILL
MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF KING SOUND AROUND
TAU 12. A SHARP WEAKENING TREND WILL FOLLOW WITH THE SYSTEM FULLY
DISSIPATING OVER LAND BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
CROSS TRACK SPREAD UNDER 50 NM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
JTWC FORECASTED TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ALTHOUGH SOME SHIFTING COULD BE NECESSARY IF
THE CIRCULATION FAILS TO CROSS THE PENINSULA AS QUICKLY AS THE
MODELS DEPICT. INTENSITY SPREAD IS WITHIN 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECASTED INTENSITY REFLECTS VALUES
CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
ACCOUNTING FOR TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN