WDXS31 PGTW 300300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HAYLEY) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.4S 121.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 107 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (HAYLEY) WITH CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, HOWEVER, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EYE-FEATURE HAS NOW BECOME CLOUD-FILLED. EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTRAL STRUCTURE AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE DAMPIER PENINSULA. ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED PREVALENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENDING CHANNEL ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS GONE THROUGH A SLIGHT STAGE OF WEAKENING SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THERE WAS A RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT ELEVATED SURFACE INTENSITIES TO GREATER THAN 100 KTS A FEW HOURS AGO. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO GREATER THAN 15 KTS, ILLUSTRATED BY THE INCREASINGLY OBSCURED EYE-FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED A 292205Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE AND ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS APRF: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 87 KTS AT 292206Z CIMSS ADT: 82 KTS AT 292030Z CIMSS AIDT: 83 KTS AT 292030Z CIMSS D-MINT: 91 KTS AT 292205Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 89 KTS AT 300020Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER LAND. WITH THAT BEING SAID, INITIAL LANDFALL IS FORECASTED OVER THE DAMPIER PENINSULA BETWEEN TAU 18 AND TAU 22, RE-EMERGE OVER CYGNET BAY AT TAU 24, AND MAKE ITS SECOND AND FINAL LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF KING SOUND NEAR TAU 24. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AT A STEADY RATE UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 20 KTS) AND DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MID-LEVELS. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND BETWEEN TAU 18 AND TAU 22, SURFACE INTENSITIES ARE FORECASTED TO SHARPLY DECREASE INTO NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA, DISSIPATING OVER LAND TO 30 KTS BY TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK SCENARIO. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF JTWC CONSENSUS, CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH GFS DETERMINISTIC, ECMWF DETERMINISTIC, ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND FGN SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. ONE OUTLIER REMAINS, AS NAVGEM CHARACTERIZES A NORTHWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24. REGARDING INTENSITY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS HAVE STOPPED INITIATING, WHILE ALL INTENSITY SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW A WEAKENING PHASE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ALIGNED CLOSELY WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN