WDXS32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.2S 103.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 369 NM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 09S WITH A SMALL BUT LOOSELY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST DUE TO MID
LEVEL SHEAR. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WESTWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 C
TO 28 C), AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 211105Z WSFM 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MIX OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 211300Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 211300Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 37 KTS AT 211107Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 38 KTS AT 211300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S IS FORECASTED TO
CONTINUE WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE STEADILY INCREASING
IN INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY
OF 70 KTS NEAR TAU 48. FOLLOWING TAU 48, 09S WILL BEGIN A SLOW, BUT
STEADY WEAKENING TREND AS DRY AIR BEGINS WRAPPING AROUND THE CORE-
INHIBITING CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, DESPITE THE FORECASTED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. FROM TAU
48 UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 09S WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THROUGH THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN AND STEADILY
DECREASING IN INTENSITY TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK GUIDANCE AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS 40 NM UNTIL TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF CROSS TRACK AND ALONG TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN MOST JTWC
CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC FORECASTED TRACK LIES SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS, ADJUSTING FOR OUTLIER MODELS,
INCLUDING NAVGEM, WHICH PUSHES THE SYSTEM AGGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS DEPICTING INCREASING INTENSITIES
UNTIL TAU 48, FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. THE
JTWC FORECASTED INTENSITY REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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