WDPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (KOTO) WARNING 
NR 029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.3N 111.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 196 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (KOTO) IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT LACKS
DEEP CONVECTION AS DEPICTED BY ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW
ALOFT, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 26 C AND 27 C.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR
IMAGERY OF THE EXPOSED LLCC AND AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK INFLUENCE FROM SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHWEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   DEMS: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 011752Z
   CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 011730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 26 KTS AT 011730Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 25 KTS AT 011752Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 25 KTS AT 011830Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (KOTO) IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD AS A COMBINATION OF LOWER LEVEL
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING OVER THAILAND SLOWLY PUSH THE
CIRCULATION ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF VIETNAM. AFTER TAU 24 THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL PUSH TD KOTO SOUTHWESTWARD
AT A QUICKER PACE. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO
ENCOUNTER HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. TD KOTO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK SPREAD AMONGST AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS UP TO 110 NM AT TAU 48 WITH ECMWF STANDING BY THE
NORTHERN TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE VIETNAM. NAVGEM
DEPICTS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK KEEPING THE CIRCULATION FIRMLY
WITHIN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WESTERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE JTWC
FORECASTED TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REFLECTS A BETTER CONSENSUS
WITH A 10 KT SPREAD. THE JTWC FORECASTED INTENSITY ALSO FOLLOWS THE
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS CLOSELY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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