WDPN32 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W (THIRTYFOUR) 
WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 5.6N 108.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH
CITY, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CLEAR-CUT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMERGING OUT FROM
UNDER SOME CIRRUS AND MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. WHAT LIMITED
CONVECTION THERE IS, IS ISOLATED ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
LLCC, ALONG A LINE OF CONVERGENCE. OTHER THAN THAT, THE SYSTEM IS
DEVOID OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A 291703Z GMI 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALED A VERY COMPACT, ACTUALLY TINY, LLCC WITH A WELL-DEFINED
LOW EMISSIVITY REGION (LER) PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION. AS SEEN IN THE EIR LOOP, THE MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALED A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION, ARRAYED IN A LINEAR
ORIENTATION ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK, AND VERY SHALLOW BANDING
FEATURES ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR IN THAT REGION. THE VORTEX REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW,
LIKELY BELOW 850MB, AND WHATEVER CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO FORM
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE OR PERSIST NEAR THE LLCC DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25
KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS WHICH REVEALED A MAXIMUM OF 25 KNOT WINDS PRESENT IN THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION. TD 34W IS FACING UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR,
WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN EDGE OF A BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
MONSOONAL SOUTHWESTERLIES. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 291742Z
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 291730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 30 KTS AT 291730Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 23 KTS AT 291703Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 24 KTS AT 291730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK WESTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRUNCATED TO 24
HOURS. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 34W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SHORT FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF A BAND OF LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES TRAPPED BETWEEN IT AND
THE COAST OF BORNEO. A SLIGHT SLOWDOWN IN FORWARD TRACK SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED BY TAU 24 AS THE SOUTHWESTERLIES WEAKEN UPSTREAM OF TD
34W. BUT OTHER THAN THAT, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD 34W HAD A VERY BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY LAST NIGHT, BUT THE WINDOW HAS PASSED AND
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO GOING FORWARD. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN
FROM ALL QUADRANTS, ENGULFING THE SYSTEM, WHILE MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR WILL PERSIST. THE SYSTEM IS THUS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST, WITH
MINIMAL CROSS-OR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED NEAR THE GFS TRACKER WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING THE SYSTEM WILL
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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