WDIO32 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE)       
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 7.0N 82.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1004 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) STRADDLING THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF SRI LANKA. A 270347Z MHS 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS BROAD BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY 
DEFINED LLCC. A 270304Z ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD, DEFINED CENTER 
WITH PATCHY AREAS OF 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST 
QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON MSI AND THE ASCAT IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
OFFSET BY FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS D-MINT: 37 KTS AT 270344Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 270500Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B IS FORECAST TO TRACK 
SLOWLY 
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR BUILDING TO 
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 96, TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO TURN 
NORTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR 
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR. DUE TO THE TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF SRI 
LANKA AND JUST EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIA, THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY 
SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL 
DEGRADE, WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLIES AND STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE 
ARABIAN SEA AND INDIA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 96 UNDER 
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 
POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
TRACK AFTER TAU 72. THE 261800Z GEFS RUN SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY 
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE 
SUPPORTING A GENERALLY POLEWARD TRACK EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST INDIA 
COAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS 
THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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