WDXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA)       
WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.3S 128.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 201 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DEFINED 
CLOUD-FILLED EYE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE KIMBERLEY COAST OF AUSTRALIA 
NEAR BUCKLE HEAD. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A SMALL, 
WELL-DEFINED EYE, WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND A 240600Z RADAR FIX. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS CONSERVATIVELY ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON THE PGTW AND ADRM INTENSITY FIXES, WITH CIMSS OBJECTIVE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 98 TO 109 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM 
HAS BEGUN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE COAST AND ENTRAINS 
DRY AIR. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE 
(20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   ADRM: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 109 KTS AT 240600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 106 KTS AT 240600Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 98 KTS AT 240452Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 106 KTS AT 240600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S WILL TRACK SLOWLY 
WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR 
TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE 
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO 
REORIENT NORTH-SOUTH AS A DEEP MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OVER 
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER LANDFALL, RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO 
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ADVECTING INTO 
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05S WILL DISSIPATE OVERLAND NO 
LATER THAN TAU 48.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH AN 
80-120NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 48. THE 240000Z GEFS 
AND EPS ENSEMBLES SHOW THE LARGE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS OVERLAND 
SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH THE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES RAPID WEAKENING SUPPORTING THE 
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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