WDXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 
024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.1S 128.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 185 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FINA) WITH A CLOUD FILLED EYE CONTINUING TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AND APPROACHING THE WESTWARD EDGE OF THE JOSEPH
BONAPARTE GULF. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND THE EYE CONTINUE TO
WARM AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE CIRCULATION NOW APPEARS DISRUPTED BY
THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C TO 31 C), WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, OFFSET
ONLY BY THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI IMAGERY OF THE EYE FEATURE AND
AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES IN ADDITION TO AN EARLIER 232059Z SAR PASS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 232059Z SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   ADRM: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 104 KTS AT 232030Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 109 KTS AT 232030Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 103 KTS AT 232130Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 104 KTS AT 240020Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED BY TAU 12, DRIVEN
BY THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF A STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND HAS BEGUN, FACILITATED BY DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. A STEEPER WEAKENING ENHANCED BY
TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION WILL BEGIN AFTER THE CIRCULATION MAKES
LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BERKELEY RIVER. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE INLAND BY TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE CROSS TRACK SPREAD AMONGST RELIABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS UNDER 40 NM UNTIL LANDFALL. ALL MODELS NOW DEPICT
AN INLAND TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN TERRITORY. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE DUE TO EXPECTED TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCE. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS A MAXIMUM SPREAD OF 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH ALL GUIDANCE CONCURRING ON SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE
LANDFALL FOLLOWED BY A MUCH STEEPER WEAKENING TREND DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE JTWC
OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS INTENSITIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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