WDXS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA)       
WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.6S 128.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 134 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S LIKELY REINTENSIFIED TO ABOUT 100 KNOTS
AT APPROXIMATELY 230900Z BUT HAS SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENED AS DRY AIR
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CORE. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MORE OBLONG
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH NO EYE EVIDENT. HOWEVER, ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK
OF SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH DECAYING
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 231205Z ASCAT-B
IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT CORE OF STORM-FORCE WINDS WHILE A 230952Z
RCM3 SAR IMAGE SHOWS A 30NM DIAMETER CORE OF 85 PLUS KNOT WINDS,
WITH A VMAX OF 120 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. THERE IS SOME 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 230600Z AND 231200Z, WITH A 
HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY POSSIBLE IN THE 105-115 KNOT RANGE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   ADRM: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 102 KTS AT 231038Z
   CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 231200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 99 KTS AT 231200Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 98 KTS AT 231100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE STR, WITH SLOW WEAKENING DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT THROUGH TAU 
12. AFTER TAU 12, TC 05S WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD 
THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE 
STR, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY 
WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND 
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. TC 05S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 WITH A SLOW TRACK 
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD OVER LAND.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT, WITH 
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK PHILOSOPHY. THE 
230600Z GEFS AND EPS RUNS SHOW A WIDER SPREAD WITH INCREASING 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE 
OVERLAND. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE 
BRIEF REINTENSIFICATION PERIOD THROUGH TAU 12, WITH TIGHT AGREEMENT ON 
THE RAPID WEAKENING PHASE OF THE FORECAST AFTER TAU 12. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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