WDXS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 
020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.8S 129.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 73 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FINA) TRANSLATING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS
STILL UNDERGOING INTENSIFICATION, AS WITNESSED BY INCREASING
CONVECTIVE FLARES, COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND EXPANDING
CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING THE RECENTLY RE-DEVELOPED RAGGED EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE MSI SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KTS ARE ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
A 222051Z RCM-2 SAR PASS SHOWING A BROAD BAND OF 90-100 KTS, WITH
PEAKS AS HIGH AS 110-115 KTS. ADDITIONALLY, INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED
BY THE PGTW T5.0 ESTIMATE AND INCREASING VALUES OF OBJECTIVE AIDS
LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A SHORT WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION DRIVEN BY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
AND KINEMATIC CONDITIONS, WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST), LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 222051Z RCM-2 SAR PASS

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   ADRM: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 79 KTS AT 222300Z
   CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 230000Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 86 KTS AT 230000Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 75 KTS AT 222046Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 81 KTS AT 230000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC FINA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS UNDER THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
OF A SLIGHTLY WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UTILIZE THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND INTENSIFY TO 105-110 KTS WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. AFTER THAT, INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ENTRAINING THE CORE
OF THE VORTEX WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND LEAD TO A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. SIMULTANEOUSLY, AROUND
TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD. BETWEEN TAU 36
AND 48, TC FINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP
OF EAST KIMBERLEY, EAST OF KALUMBURU, AUSTRALIA. AT THE SAME TIME,
THE DISSIPATION PROCESS WILL BEGIN AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND ALONG THE AUSTRALIA 
COASTLINE. COMPLETE DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT OR PRIOR TO 
TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) GUIDANCE FOR THE INITIAL 24
HOURS REMAINS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT. AFTERWARDS, HOWEVER, THE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS INCREASING WITH TIME, WITH GALWEM AND NAVGEM
INDICATING STRONGER IMPACT FROM THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
THEREFORE LANDFALL FURTHER SOUTHEAST, JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
CAMBRIDGE GULF, AUSTRALIA. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE LIES DETERMINISTIC UKMET MODEL, INDICATING A
MORE RAPID WESTWARD TURN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS INDICATE A MORE GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS
WEST-SOUTHWEST, FOLLOWED BY LANDFALL AND TRACK LEADING SOUTHWARD
CLOSER TO DISSIPATION. OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK IS LAID VERY CLOSE TO
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSITY IS ALSO
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS
NEARLY ALL MODELS INDICATE THE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF DRY AIR
BEGINNING TO ERODE THE CYCLONE AROUND TAU 12, RESULTING IN RAPID
WEAKENING AFTERWARDS. FULL DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND
96. OF NOTE, THE INITIAL 12 HOURS INTENSIFICATION FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AS WELL AS THE MESOSCALE
HAFS AND HWRF GUIDANCE, WHICH BOTH SHOW TC FINA REACHING PEAK 
INTENSITY OF 110-115 KTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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