WDXS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 
019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.4S 129.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 65 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FINA) CLEARING LAND AND TRANSITING SOUTHWESTWARD. 
THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING, AS WITNESSED BY INCREASED CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY, COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND EXPANDING CONVECTIVE BANDING 
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON 
IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND PGTW ESTIMATE OF T5.0. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION DRIVEN BY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS - WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW
(5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS
WELL AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 76 KTS AT 221800Z
   CIMSS ADT: 82 KTS AT 221900Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 78 KTS AT 221900Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 71 KTS AT 221654Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 70 KTS AT 221830Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC FINA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF A SLIGHTLY WEAKENING
DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
UTILIZE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND INTENSIFY TO 95 KTS WITHIN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTER THAT HOWEVER, INCREASINGLY DRY AIR
ENTRAINING THE CORE OF THE VORTEX WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THE
CIRCULATION. AROUND TAU 48, TC FINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ANOTHER
LANDFALL NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF EAST KIMBERLEY, EAST OF
KALUMBURU, AUSTRALIA, WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING. AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM 
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER LAND, SIMULTANEOUSLY BEING 
STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND LINGERING 
ALONG THE AUSTRALIA COASTLINE. FULL DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR 
AROUND TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM
TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE
FOR THE INITIAL 36-48 HOURS REMAINS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT, HOWEVER
ACTUAL STORM MOTION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AS WELL AS MAJORITY OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS INCREASING WITH TIME,
WITH NAVGEM INDICATING STRONGER IMPACT FROM THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST 
AND THEREFORE LANDFALL FURTHER SOUTHEAST, JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST OF 
CAMBRIDGE GULF, AUSTRALIA. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE 
ENVELOPE LIE GALWEM AND DETERMINISTIC UKMET TRACKERS, INDICATING A 
WESTWARD TURN AROUND TAU 12-24. THE REMAINDER OF THE AVAILABLE TRACK 
MODELS INDICATE A MORE GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST. JTWC 
OFFICIAL TRACK IS LAID ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS, BUT HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, 
AS NEARLY ALL MODELS INDICATE THE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF DRY AIR 
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AROUND TAU 24. IN RETURN, MOST OF THE 
AVAILABLE MODEL DATA SHOWS RAPID WEAKENING BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48, 
FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION AT OR PRIOR TO TAU 96.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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