WDXS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 
016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.8S 131.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 51 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
A 212034Z SAR PASS DEPICTS SHARPLY HIGHER INTENSITIES THAN ALL
ASSESSMENTS THUS FAR, BUT THE INCIDENCE ANGLE IS AT THE BORDER OF
OK AND DEGRADED OUTPUTS. THE SAR DEPICTS A SOLID RING OF GREATER
THAN 85KTS IN THE MAIN EYEWALL, AND SOME INDIVIDUAL CAPSULES IN THE
NORTHWEST EYEWALL ARE IN EXCESS OF 100KTS. THOSE PICS ARE PLAUSIBLE
AS VISUAL ANIMATION SHOWS SOME OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN THE SAME AREA
DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS. ENHANCED IR IMAGERY FROM CIRA ALSO
SHOWS INCREASING COLD TOPS FLARING UP NEAR THE CORE AND ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPROVING OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
THUS THE INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP AN INCREMENT, HEDGING THE TOP END
OF THE DVORAKS AND OBJECTIVE ASSESSMENTS TOWARDS THE SAR. TROPICAL
CYCLONE FINA IS TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF MELVILLE ISLAND TOWARDS AN
AREA OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT THE GAP BETWEEN MELVILLE
ISLAND AND THE TOP END IS SO TIGHT THAT THE EFFECTS OF LAND
INTERACTION, HOWEVER MILD, ARE BEING FELT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
SYSTEM. THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS HELPING TO 
MINIMIZE THE LAND INTERACTION. DRIER EASTERLIES FLOWING OVER THE TOP 
END ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 212034Z SAR PASS. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A STABLE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED NEAR 19S 138E IS FORCING THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN OFF-SHORE.  

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   ADRM: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 80 KTS AT 212100Z
   CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 220100Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 75 KTS AT 220100Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 82 KTS AT 212059Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 71 KTS AT 220100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: IN THE NEAR TERM, THE VORTEX OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FINA WILL REMAIN OVER WATER THROUGH THE CHANNEL AND TRACK
INTO THE TIMOR SEA, JUST SKIRTING THE TOP END. FINA IS EXPECTED TO
BE PEAKING AS IT TRACKS JUST NORTH OF DARWIN. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) WILL EASE AND THE SYSTEM WILL MANAGE TO COCOON ITSELF FROM
THE ENCROACHING DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, BUT AFTER THAT BOTH
VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL ACT TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM ALONG ITS
TERMINAL LEG TOWARDS A LANDFALL NORTH OF WYNDHAM. THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT OR NEAR TYPHOON STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL 
PART OF THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF, IN AN AREA OF LESSER BROWN OCEAN 
EFFECT DUE TO MORE IRREGULAR AND ROCKY TERRAIN THAN THAT FURTHER 
SOUTH, OVER THE GREAT SANDY DESSERT.  ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE 
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND RATHER THAN MOVING BACK OFF THE 
KIMBERLY COAST, BUT AT THAT TEMPORAL DISTANCE A RE-EMERGENCE BACK INTO 
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A MUCH WIDER SPREAD THAN
NORMAL, ESPECIALLY IN THE LONG RANGE WHERE THE SPREAD MOVES INTO
THE REALM OF RIDICULOUSNESS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MORE SKILLED
TRACKERS INCLUDING THE NEW AI VARIANTS SPLIT TOWARDS LANDFALL ONTO
THE CONTINENT. INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WIDE SPREAD BUT
QUALITATIVELY THEY TELL THE SAME STORY, WITH THE STORM PEAKING IN
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN BEGINNING AN EMPHATIC DETERIORATION
THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
AND HEDGES TOWARDS THE GFS-BASED STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND
HAFS-A OUTPUT, THOUGH THE PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST OF 95KTS AT TAU
36 IS WELL BELOW THE HAFS OUTPUT OF 105KTS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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