WDXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 9.8S 133.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 211 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN IRREGULAR
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, WITH SOME ISOLATED OVERSHOOTING TOPS NEAR
THE ASSESSED CENTER POSITION. THE MOST RECENT FRAMES OF ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN GENERAL, THOUGH A WARM
SPOT IS STARTING TO POP UP WHERE THE EYE WOULD BE ANTICIPATED TO
FORM, SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM IS STILL INTENSIFYING. A 192119 WSF-M
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED MIC EYE FEATURE,
THOUGH THE ACCOMPANYING 36GHZ IMAGE DEPICTED A MUCH LESS-DEFINED
EYE FEATURE. COMPARISON OF THE TWO INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS
ASYMMETRIC WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF WESTWARD VORTEX TILT WITH HEIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE
CIRCULATION ARE RELATIVELY DRY AND DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION, SUPPORTING THE PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN THOSE
QUADRANTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CIMSS ATMOSPHERIC
MOTION VECTORS (AMVS) SHOW THAT WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD, THE AREAL EXTENT HAS DECREASED, AND IN
FACT THERE IS SOME PENETRATION OF EASTERLY FLOW IN TOWARDS THE
CENTER, EMANATING FROM AN AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF PAPUA NEW
GUINEA. ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM ABOM SHOWS THE PREVIOUSLY
WELL-DEFINED EYE HAS NOW DISSOLVED AND IS NO LONGER EVIDENT IN THE
RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 200033Z ASCAT-B PASS BULLSEYE PASS AND
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE EARLIER WSF-M MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH LOW TO MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS, OFFSET BY
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INTRUSION, AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA AND A WEAKER NER SOUTH OF JAVA. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   ADRM: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 76 KTS AT 192300Z
   CIMSS ADT: 76 KTS AT 192330Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 75 KTS AT 192330Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 59 KTS AT 192127Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 55 KTS AT 200030Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: WEAK WESTWARD OUTFLOW; DRY MID-LEVEL AIR,
PARTICULARLY EVIDENT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER; MODERATE
MID-LEVEL SHEAR. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TC 05S HAS JERKED
SOUTHEASTWARD, THOUGH THIS MOTION IS LIKELY MORE OF A WOBBLE CAUSED
BY VORTEX PRECESSION, RATHER THAN A TRUE TRACK CHANGE, AS THE
DEEP-LAYER STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH JUST YET, AND THE
SYSTEM IS STILL ENSCONCED IN A COMPETING STEERING PATTERN. HOWEVER,
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST IS BUILDING AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, AND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE WILL PINCH OFF INTO A DISTINCT STR CENTER
OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 24, TC 05S WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, AND THIS GENERAL STEERING SETUP WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXACT TRACK,
WHETHER OVER THE TIWI ISLANDS OR ALONG THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF
DARWIN, WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE STR OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA
DEVELOPS AND HOW QUICKLY IT BUILDS. A FASTER DEVELOPMENT WILL TEND
TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FURTHER OFFSHORE AND OVER THE TIWI ISLANDS, WHILE
A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE THE TRACK CLOSER TO DARWIN. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HEDGES TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTION, WITH THE
SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL FIRST ALONG THE SHORES OF CROKER ISLAND AND
GARIG GUNAK BARLU NATIONAL PARK BY TAU 36, QUICKLY CROSSING THE VAN
DIEMEN GULF AND MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF DARWIN BY
AROUND TAU 48. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES INTO THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF
BY TAU 72, BEFORE MAKING A THIRD LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST NORTHEAST
OF KALUMBURU. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED WAY OFF ON THE INTENSITY TREND
SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN, WITH EVEN THE HAFS-A NOW SHOWING A
WEAKENING TREND IN THE NEAR-TERM, THOUGH IT STILL DEPICTS
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO TAU 48. THE PRIMARY INHIBITORS
REMAIN THE VORTEX TILT, MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. MOST GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A RELAXATION OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR, WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR VORTEX SYMMETRIZATION AND AN OVERALL MOISTENING OF THE
ENVIRONMENT. ONCE THESE FACTORS ALIGN, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY INTENSIFY, REACHING 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48, JUST PRIOR TO THE
SECOND LANDFALL POINT IN THE VAN DIEMEN GULF. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COASTLINE NEAR DARWIN, THEN
REINTENSIFY OVER THE BONAPARTE GULF, BEFORE WEAKENING ONCE MORE
OVER LAND BY TAU 120.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MODEL PACKAGE HAS CONTINUED TO CLUSTER MORE
TIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS STARTING
TO CONGEAL IN A SINGLE GROUP. THE ONLY OUTLIER AT THIS POINT IS THE
GALWEM, WHICH DEPICTS THE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST
AFTER TAU 72. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONFINED TO A
GRADUALLY EXPANDING ENVELOPE THAT REACHES 170NM ACROSS BY TAU 120.
THE GEFS MARKS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE, WHILE THE ECMWF
AND EC-AIFS MARK THE SOUTHERN SIDE, ALONG THE GDM FGN MEAN.
AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO A SHOW A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE
OF SOLUTIONS, WITH THE MEANS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SPREAD, HOWEVER THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS SHOW
A VERY WIDE DISPERSION, COVERING THE ENTIRETY OF THE TIMOR AND
ARAFURA SEAS AND WELL INTO NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY
LARGE ENSEMBLE DISPERSION AND UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS
WELL, WITH NEARLY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING
NEAR-TERM WEAKENING, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 36 OR TAU 48. THE CONSENSUS MEAN, SHIPS
AND HAFS-A INDICATE A RELATIVELY FLAT TREND THROUGH TAU 48, AND
THE HAFS-A SHOWS A STEADY PACE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU
24, UP TO TAU 84. HOWEVER, THE HAFS-A TRACK IS BY FAR THE MOST
EQUATORWARD, WELL NORTH OF THE TIWI ISLANDS, AND IS THUS UNLIKELY
TO BE REPRESENTATIVE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR THE
CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN A MODEL SOLUTIONS AND LARGE RUN
TO RUN SWINGS IN THE GUIDANCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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