WDXS31 PGTW 192100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 9.5S 133.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 218 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ASSESSED CORE. A 191620Z AMSR2 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED AN ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE, WITH STRONG AND DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PREDOMINANTLY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION, AND A NOTABLY DRIER AIR MASS DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN SIDE. COMPARISON OF THE 89GHZ AND 37GHZ CHANNELS SUGGESTS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF WESTWARD VORTEX TILT WITH HEIGHT, CONFIRMING THE PRESENCE OF ENHANCED EASTERLY SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG EASTWARD FLOW AT THE OUTFLOW LEVEL, WITH A DISTINCT ARC CLOUD MARKING THE EASTERN REACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. CIMSS HIGH-RESOLUTION ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING DIVERGENCE EAST OF TC 05S, WITH A SHARP SPLIT IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL 200MB FLOW BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH, CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 22 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE LOCALIZED SHEAR IN DIRECT VICINITY OF TC 05S IS LIKELY LESS THAN THE AREA AVERAGED SHEAR ESTIMATES BASED ON THE SPLIT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM ABOM REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED BUT ASYMMETRIC EYE FEATURE, CONFIRMING THE OVERALL STRUCTURE AS DEPICTED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BASED ON THE RADAR DATA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE OVERALL, WITH VERY WARM SSTS, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING PATTERN, WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOLOMONS AND WEAK NER NEAR JAVA. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS ADRM: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 61 KTS AT 191800Z CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 191730Z CIMSS AIDT: 49 KTS AT 191730Z CIMSS D-MINT: 56 KTS AT 191642Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 56 KTS AT 191830Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE INTENSITY TREND IN THE SHORT-TERM HAS BEEN REVERSED, NOW FORECASTING INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL, RESULTING IN A SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL INTENSITY FROM 55 KNOTS TO 80 KNOTS. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY, SITUATED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING PATTERN TO THE NORTH OF AUSTRALIA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE NER NORTHEAST OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND EXTEND TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL TURN TC 05S ONTO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. BY TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA AND THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, LEADING TC 05S TO TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWESTWARD SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND DRY AIR CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO, INHIBITING TC 05S FROM ACHIEVING AXISYMMETRIZATION AND THUS PREVENTING MUCH INTENSIFICATION OVER THIS TIME FRAME. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING GFS, ECMWF AND HAFS-A SUGGEST A GENERAL MOISTENING TREND OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF AND SHOW A SHARP DECREASE IN SHEAR BEGINNING AROUND TAU 30, WHICH ALLOWS FOR A RAPID SYMMETRIZATION AND VERTICAL ALIGNMENT OF THE VORTEX AND THE ONSET OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI). THE HAFS-A IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN INDICATING RI, DEPICTING A 28MB DROP IN PRESSURE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 AND ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, THE FACT THAT MULTIPLE MODELS CONCUR ON THE TIMING OF DECREASING SHEAR SUPPORTS THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS GARIG GUNAK BARLU NATIONAL PARK AND INTO THE VAN DIEMEN GULF. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS, BUT IF THE SYSTEM CAN ACHIEVE RAPID CONSOLIDATION, A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY IS A POSSIBILITY. THE TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL TO THE NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE CITY, BUT A HIGHER PEAK EARLIER IN THE FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER INTENSITY IMPACT ON DARWIN. AFTER MOVING INTO THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF THE SYSTEM WILL REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WARM WATERS, HOWEVER INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL CONSTRAIN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT MAKES A THIRD LANDFALL BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS CYCLES, DISPLAYING TWO DISTINCT GROUPINGS. THE NORTHERN GROUP (GEFS, EGRR, GALWEM) DEPICT THE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER THE TIWI ISLANDS, THEN REMAINING NORTH OF 12S THROUGH TAU 120. THE REMAINDER OF THE PACKAGE (GFS, ECMWF, ECENS, EC-AIFS, GDM AND THE CONSENSUS MEAN) ARE ENSCONCED IN AN ENVELOPE THAT GRADUALLY EXPANDS TO 135NM AT TAU 120, AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER THE NATIONAL PARK, THEN STRADDLES THE COAST NORTHEAST OF DARWIN OR OVER THE CHANNEL BETWEEN DARWIN AND THE TIWI ISLANDS, THEN INTO THE VAN DIEMEN GULF BEFORE CLIPPING THE COAST NORTH OF KALUMBURU BY TAU 120. AI MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE CONSENSUS MEAN, WITH BOTH THE AIFS AND THE GDM FGN TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF DARWIN BEFORE LOOPING BACK INTO THE VAN DIEMEN GULF. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED JUST SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN, CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND EC-AIFS TRACKERS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN SOUTHWESTWARD, AND THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT, WITH THE GFS, CTCX AND COTC SHOWING WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 48 FOLLOWED BY RI THEREAFTER. THE SHIPS, AND CONSENSUS MEAN HOWEVER DEPICT A FLAT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48 FOLLOWED BY GENERAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER, WHILE THE HAFS-A DEPICTS A FLAT TREND TO TAU 36, FOLLOWED BY EXTREME RI TO A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS AT TAU 48, THEN WEAKENING AND REINTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 96. ADDITIONALLY, THE CHR4 AND SEVERAL CIMSS AI-RI RI AIDS ARE TRIPPED. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN TO TAU 24, THEN ABOUT 10 KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE MEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN