WDPN32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING 
NR 037//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.8N 125.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 141 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 27 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STROM (TS) 32W (FUNG-WONG) BECOMING ABSORBED IN A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF MIYAKOJIMA, JAPAN. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MINIMAL
DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (26 C TO 27 C), AND DRY AIR COMPLETELY WRAPPING THE
STORM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
RADAR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON INTERPOLATION OF A 130404Z OCEANSAT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF TAIWAN

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   CIMSS SATCON: 39 KTS AT 130508Z
   CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 130530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 130530Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 27 KTS AT 130508Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 130530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 32W (FUNG-WONG) CONTINUES TO DECAY AS IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY CENTERED TO THE
WEST OF OKINAWA. THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND
THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH CIRCULATION OPENING, BRINGING THE
STORM OR ITS REMNANTS JUST SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THE 30-35 KTS WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS DESPITE THE
CIRCULATION BECOMING DISSIPATED FROM INTERACTION WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD UP TO 60 NM UNTIL
TAU 12 DUE TO SOME DIFFICULTY IN THE MODELS BEING ABLE TO TRACK THE
CENTER OF TS 32W AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE
JTWC FORECASTED TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH A 10 KT SPREAD. THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN