WDPN32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING 
NR 036//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.4N 122.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 299 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT JUST WEST OF YONAGUNI ISLAND, JAPAN. SOME
RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LLCC
AS THE CIRCULATION CLEARS TAIWAN, UNBLOCKING COLD ADVECTION FLOW
TOWARDS 32W AND CREATING A NEW BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
NORTH. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS HIGH, WITH THE STRONGEST VERTICAL
SHEAR LAYER ASSESSED AT 35-40 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS SHEAR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM'S APPROACH TO A
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA
AND THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF 32W, WITH MOST RAIN AND MOISTURE FOUND NORTH OF THE
CIRCULATION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 35 KT DUE TO A BAND OF GALES TO THE NORTHWEST THAT IS AT LEAST
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH 32W'S CIRCULATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF TAIWAN

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 37 KTS AT 122228Z
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 122030Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 122030Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 26 KTS AT 122228Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 122300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) IS IN ITS
TERMINAL DECAY PHASE, WHICH WILL CULMINATE IN ABSORPTION INTO A
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR SOUTH OF OKINAWA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
THE LLCC HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD TO THE EAST OF TAIWAN AND WILL
NOW TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD NEAR THE SAKISHIMA ISLANDS
AS IT MAKES CONTACT WITH THE FRONT IMMEDIATELY TO ITS NORTH. THE
CIRCULATION WILL THEN OPEN UP AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE WEAKENING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LLCC, A RIBBON OF GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES TO EXTEND THROUGH THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION, ENHANCED BY THE
NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION. MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF 32W AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE SAKISHIMA ISLANDS, GRADUALLY DECAYING
BELOW GALE FORCE AS THE STORM OR ITS REMNANTS TRACKS SOUTH OF
OKINAWA. THE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN UP INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MAXIMUM WINDS FALLING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA (25
KT), SO THIS FORECAST TERMINATES AT 24 HOURS WITH AN INTENSITY OF
30 KT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS SOME SPREAD AT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE STORM'S CIRCULATION AT THAT TIME. THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PERSISTENT GALE-FORCE WINDS
THROUGH 12 HOURS, THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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