WDPN32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING 
NR 035//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.1N 121.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 121 NM SOUTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DECAYING CYCLONE, WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT JUST OFF THE
COASTLINE OF EASTERN TAIWAN. A SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC, AND HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS HIGH, WITH THE
STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR LAYER ASSESSED AT 35-40 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS SHEAR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM'S
APPROACH TO A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE
EAST CHINA SEA AND THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS DRY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF 23W, WITH MOST RAIN AND MOISTURE FOUND NORTH
OF THE CIRCULATION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
SET AT 35 KT BASED ON 121550Z OSCAT-3 AND 121326Z ASCAT-C 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWING A BAND OF GALES TO THE NORTHWEST THAT IS 
AT LEAST PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH 32W'S CIRCULATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF TAIWAN

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 121420Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 121720Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 35-40 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) IS IN ITS
TERMINAL DECAY PHASE, WHICH WILL CULMINATE IN ABSORPTION INTO A
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR SOUTH OF OKINAWA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE
SAKISHIMA ISLANDS AS THE STORM ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
EAST AND ENTERS THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, THEN OPEN UP AND
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
WEAKENING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, A RIBBON OF GALE-FORCE
WINDS CONTINUES TO EXTEND THROUGH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION, ENHANCED BY THE NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION. MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 TO 40
KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF 32W AS IT
TRACKS NEAR THE SAKISHIMA ISLANDS, GRADUALLY DECAYING BELOW GALE
FORCE AS THE STORM TRACKS SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THE CIRCULATION WILL
OPEN UP INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MAXIMUM WINDS
FALLING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA (25 KT), SO THIS FORECAST TERMINATES
AT 24 HOURS WITH AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS SOME SPREAD AT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE STORM'S CIRCULATION AT THAT TIME. THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PERSISTENT GALE-FORCE WINDS
THROUGH 12 HOURS, THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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