WDPN32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING 
NR 034//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.2N 120.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 470 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) WITH A SLIGHTLY RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT WAS ANALYZED TO BE RIGHT OFF THE COAST AT
121200Z. AS OF 121400Z, THE LLCC APPEARS TO HAVE QUICKLY JUMPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TAIWAN AND EMERGED BACK OVER WATER.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS COMPLETELY DEVOID OF CONVECTION BESIDES A SMALL
AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 32W IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HIGH (20-25 KTS) SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND WARM
(27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM TAIWAN.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK CI VALUES OF T2.5 AND WEAKENING
FROM THE PRIOR ASCAT DATA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 121200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 32W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24 WITH AN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. TRACK SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO CONSIDERABLY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. 32W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WRAPPING IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WINDS AGAIN, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24. 32W IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRETCH
AND BECOME ILL-DEFINED AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE FORMING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO COMPLETE AROUND TAU 36, MARKING THE POINT WHERE 32W IS STATED TO
BE DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. A FINAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KTS IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE BACKGROUND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE AS THE VORTEX OF 32W COMPLETELY WASHES OUT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH AN 80 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD. THE ONE
MAJOR OUTLIER CONTINUES TO BE GALWEM, WHICH DEPICTS A MUCH FASTER
TRACK SPEED THAN THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE. AFTER TAU 24, MODELS
DIVERGE WITH SOME MODELS BEGINNING A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN WHILE
OTHERS CONTINUE ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING
INTENSITY. HAFS-A AND HWRF DEPICT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
TAU 12 WHILE AI MODELS DEPICT CONSISTENT WEAKENING. THERE IS
OVERALL AGREEMENT ON WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24 THOUGH. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND CALLS FOR A STEADY
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE WEAKENING. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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