WDPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING 
NR 032//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.4N 119.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 253 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 32W AS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
NO CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A FORMING DRY SLOT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. AN 112242Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAS COLLAPSED AND THE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LESS DEFINED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE SAME 112242Z SSMIS IMAGE WAS UTILIZED IN PLACING THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES
AND THE CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 112300ZZ
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 120030Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 120030Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 41 KTS AT 112242Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 120030Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 32W (FUNG-WONG) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT
REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR CENTERED TO ITS
EAST. LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN TAIWAN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
TAU 12, WITH 32W CROSSING TAIWAN AND REEMERGING BACK OVER WATER 
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48, 32W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY EASTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. AT TAUS 36 AND 48, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE 32W REMNANT
VORTEX WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 
BY THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW. THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE 
ERODING FUNG-WONG, THOUGH THE SURGE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO 
THE DISSIPATING CIRCULATION, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. BY TAU 48, 32W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE 
BOUNDARY OF THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WITH THE REMNANT VORTICITY FULLY 
DISSIPATED NO LATER THAN TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. AT THAT POINT,
HOWEVER, SOME MODELS DEPICT A SOUTHWARD TURN, INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SHALLOW VORTEX WILL TRANSITION STEERING
INFLUENCES TO THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW. AS A RESULT OF THE
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER FORECAST TAUS, THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS 
FORECAST WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN 
MARGINAL AGREEMENT DUE TO MODELS REGISTERING ELEVATED WINDS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE, THOUGH THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING A 
GENERAL WEAKENING TREND OVER TIME. CONSEQUENTLY, THE JTWC INTENSITY 
FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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