WDPN32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING 
NR 031//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.3N 119.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 264 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY
SHEARED, SHALLOW, AND INCREASINGLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY SIGNIFICANT 
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH HAS STIFLED 
ANY REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION AND LEFT TROPICAL STORM (TS) 32W A
SHELL OF ITS FORMER SELF. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED EIR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES, A 111346Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER PASS, AND 
THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 111346Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO
THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 111900Z
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 111900Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 111900Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 37 KTS AT 111724Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 111900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 32W (FUNG-WONG) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. LANDFALL IN TAIWAN IS EXPECTED JUST AFTER
TAU 12, WITH REEMERGENCE OVER WATER ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO TAU 24.
FROM AROUND TAU 36 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, 32W IS 
ANTICIPATED TO ASSUME A NORTHEASTWARD FOLLOWED BY AN EASTWARD TRACK AS 
IT CURLS AROUND TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. REGARDING 
INTENSITY, 32W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY FOR THE 
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE BRIEF LANDFALL IN TAIWAN WILL 
LIKELY HAVE A MINIMAL WEAKENING EFFECT ON FUNG-WONG AS THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO WRAP NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW THROUGH TAU 48. HOWEVER, 
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL 
CONTINUOUSLY ERODE THE STORM. BY TAU 72, THE REMNANT VORTEX OF 32W IS 
EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY THE SURGE FLOW AND FULLY DISSIPATE. THE 
FINAL FORECAST INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS INDICATIVE OF NORTHEASTERLY 
SURGE WINDS THAT WILL BE PRESENT NEAR THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF 32W.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 BUT QUICKLY DIVERGE FROM THERE. NOTABLY,
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GFS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF 32W TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD
AS IT SHALLOWS OUT AND GETS PUSHED BY THE SURGE FLOW. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND GALWEM DO NOT REFLECT THAT OUTCOME AND
DEPICT 32W CONTINUING ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. AS A RESULT
OF THE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER FORECAST TAUS, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL
LOW CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 
SLOW WEAKENING TREND FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC 
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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