WDPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.4N 118.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 383 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
EARLY MORNING FRAMES OF ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS AN ALMOST HAPHAZARD SATELLITE PRESENTATION, WITH RAGGED
MID-LEVEL CURVED BANDING DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A WELL-DEFINED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS RACING OFF OVER THE RYUKUS AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND 
JAPAN THANKS TO A STRONG JET STREAM OVER CENTRAL CHINA. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT OF
AGENCY DVORAK POSITION ESTIMATES, AND SUPPORTED BY A 102218Z MWI
COLOR 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALING A DEFINED NEAR-SURFACE CENTER, WITH
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS
AND ONLY SHALLOW BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. THE NORTHWESTWARD 
VERTICAL TILT IS READILY APPARENT IN COMPARING THE 37GHZ AND 89GHZ MWI 
DATA, SUGGESTING THE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS HIGHER THAN THEN
111100Z CIMSS 13 KNOT VWS ESTIMATE. THE RAGGED APPEARANCE IS ALSO
PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO DECLINING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES
AS COOLER UPWELLED WATERS DISPLACE THE SURROUNDING 27 DEGREE
CELSIUS POOL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AT A GENEROUS 65 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0, AND SUPPORTED BY AN 111100Z
CIMSS SATCON VALUE OF 65 KNOTS, WHILE ADT AND AIDT ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO BE NOTABLY HIGHER. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE UNFAVORABLE AS GFS INDICATES 35 PERCENT MID-LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AIR IS FULLY ENVELOPED INTO THE CORE, IN ADDITION TO THE
SST AND VWS CONSIDERATIONS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO
THE NORTHEAST


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 66 KTS AT 110000Z
   CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 110000Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 79 KTS AT 110000Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 58 KTS AT 102220Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 62 KTS AT 110100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 26-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: THE VORTEX IS LIKELY NOT ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF
UNDER THE VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS WELL AS THE EFFECTS OF
DRY MID-LEVEL ENTRAINMENT AND DETERIORATING OCEANIC SUPPORT.
EXTENT OF 35 TC WIND RADII IS COMPLICATED BY THE ENHANCED
BACKGROUND FLOW OF A NORTHWESTERLY SURGE. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 32W CONTINUES TO STEADILY ROUND THE STR,
WITH A TRACK THAT SHOULD TAKE IT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
TAIWAN. AFTER EMERGING OFF THE CENTRAL EASTERN COAST, THE COMBINED
EFFECTS OF LAND PASSAGE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND THE HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A DISSIPATION OF
THE LLCC OVER WATER, AS THE REMNANT ENERGY IS ABSORBED INTO A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY TAU 72. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM COULD
DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER, NOTING THAT THE LLCC HAS BECOME ALMOST FULLY
EXPOSED IN MSI SINCE THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS TIME. THE FINAL FORECAST
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS REFLECTIVE OF THE BACKGROUND SURGE FLOW AT
THE TIME OF DISSIPATION. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
DURING PASSAGE OVER TAIWAN, BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER RE-EMERGENCE
OVER WATER DUE TO COMPLEXITIES IN MODEL TRACKER HANDLING OF THE
STORM FLOW VERSUS BACKGROUND FLOW. SOLUTIONS ARE BIFURCATED WITH
SOME TRACKS MAINTAINING AN EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION, WHILE ANOTHER
GROUPING DEFLECTS TO THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE LOSING THE REMNANT
VORTEX. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
MEAN AT THE FINAL TAU, WHILE THE REST OF THE TRACK IS SOUTH OF
CONSENSUS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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