WDPN32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.8N 118.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 418 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON
(TY) 32W (FUNG-WONG) CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE TO REORGANIZE AS THE
RAGGED EYE HAS COMPLETELY FILLED, WITH ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON FAIR AGREEMENT OF AGENCY
DVORAK POSITION ESTIMATES, AND AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CENTER
POSITION IDENTIFIED IN AN 101322Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS AND ITS
ASSOCIATED NORMALIZED RADAR CROSS SECTION DEFINED CENTER. BEST
TRACK DATA INDICATES TYPHOON FUNG-WONG HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AS
IT ROUNDS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT 65 KTS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 AND
SUPPORTED BY AN 101800Z CIMSS SATCON VALUE OF 71 KNOTS, WHILE ADT
AND AIDT ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO BE NOTABLY HIGHER. THE CURRENT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE,
CHARACTERIZED BY AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (27-28 C) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 101322Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO
THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 71 KTS AT 101800Z
   CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 101730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 87 KTS AT 101730Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 50 KTS AT 101744Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 69 KTS AT 101800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 32W (FUNG-WONG) IS ROUNDING THE AXIS OF THE
STEERING STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT, BRINGING
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT INTO THE CORE. LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
TAIWAN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 36-48. 32W WILL REEMERGE
OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA JUST AFTER TAU 48 AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TERRAIN INTERACTION WHILE
TRANSITING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE IN TAIWAN WILL RESULT IN
RAPID WEAKENING, CONTRIBUTING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. FUNG-WONG
IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS THE REMNANT LLCC
BECOMES FULLY ABSORBED INTO A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE 30 KNOT
INTENSITY AT DISSIPATION IS REFLECTIVE OF THE BROAD ENHANCED SURGE
WINDS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 32W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN TAIWAN
BETWEEN TAU 36-48. THERE IS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
FUNG-WONG'S SPEED OF ADVANCE WHILE ROUNDING THE STR AXIS, LEADING
TO A 140NM ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36 AND A 100 NM CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD AT LANDFALL IN TAIWAN. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT 32W WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE, HOWEVER THERE IS MODERATE DISAGREEMENT IN THE RATE OF
WEAKENING, PARTICULARLY AFTER TAU 36. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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