WDPN32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 
026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.5N 118.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 430 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON
(TY) 32W (FUNG-WONG) CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE TO REORGANIZE WITH ITS
RAGGED EYE FEATURE NOW OBSCURED AND DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS TY FUNG-WONG HAS SLOWED DOWN, RESULTING IN
COLD WATER UPWELLING. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH,
MORE DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CORE OF THE VORTEX. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR
IMAGERY, A 101322Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS, AND AGENCY FIXES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE SAME 101322Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 67 KTS AT 101023Z
   CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 101140Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 72 KTS AT 101140Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 60 KTS AT 101053Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 62 KTS AT 101200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 32W (FUNG-WONG) IS BEGINNING TO ROUND THE
AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AND
HEADING TOWARDS TAIWAN. WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WHILE CONTENDING WITH DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE VORTEX
STRUCTURE. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AROUND TAU 24 FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEGRADATION OF
THE STRUCTURE OF TY 32W. LANDFALL IS FORECAST AROUND TAU 48 OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF TAIWAN. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE PASSAGE
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF TAIWAN WILL RESULT IN RAPID
WEAKENING, AS THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO 25-30 KTS AT THE
TIME OF THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGING OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. TY
FUNG-WONG WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER SHORTLY AFTER, AND PRIOR
TO TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS-TRACK SPREAD HAS INCREASED AS NAVGEM MOVES
FURTHER WEST FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, STILL TRYING TO DEPICT
THE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT. ECMWF DEPICTS TY
FUNG-WONG GRINDING UP THE WESTERN COAST OF TAIWAN BEFORE TRACKING
OVER TAIPEI, TAIWAN AND BACK OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AFTERWARDS.
MEANWHILE, GFS HAS STUCK HARD TO THE EASTERN TRACK DEPICTING
LANDFALL OVER KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 AND THEN
A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE AS NAVGEM SOLUTION IS SIGNIFICANTLY SKEWING THE
CALCULATIONS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT BY 50 KTS AT TAU 60,
THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS CONCUR ON A DOWNWARD TREND FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST
REFLECTS INTENSITIES IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A
STEEPER WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 48 ACCOUNTING FOR INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, AS WELL AS THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF TERRAIN
INTERACTION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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