WDPN32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 
025//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.6N 118.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 220 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 32W (FUNG-WONG) CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPLAYING SIGNS OF SLOW REORGANIZATION WITH
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION RELEGATED PRIMARILY
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION AS DEPICTED BY
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUD TOPS
TEMPERATURES SURROUNDING THE CIRCULATION HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
DVORAK AGENCY FIXES AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 66 KTS AT 100513Z
   CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 100530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 66 KTS AT 100530Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 55 KTS AT 100513Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 69 KTS AT 100600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 32W (FUNG-WONG) WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD, THEN
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN. AS THE TRACK CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA, WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM GRAPPLES WITH
COOLER DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE VORTEX STRUCTURE. LANDFALL
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 OVER THE CENTRAL WESTERN
COAST OF TAIWAN AS A TROPICAL STORM. THIS IS A SLIGHT CHANGE OVER
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DRIVEN BY ENHANCED DEGRADATION OF THE
STRUCTURE OF TY FUNG-WONG EXPERIENCING A 15-20 KT DROP AS COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST INTENSITY AT 06Z. TY FUNG-WONG WILL THEN
WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS TAKE EFFECT. THE
CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REEMERGE OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA BY TAU
72 AND DISSIPATE OVER OPEN WATER BY TAU 120, DUE TO DEGRADING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK SPREAD IS UNDER 80 NM THROUGH TAU 48
AND AFTERWARDS SPREADS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SOME MODELS, INCLUDING
EMCWF, WHICH IS LOSING TRACK OF THE VORTEX AFTER IT TRACKS OVER THE
TAIWAN LANDMASS. COAMPS, NAVGEM, AND GFS KEEP PUSHING THE SYSTEM
EAST PAST OKINAWA, JAPAN. THE POSITION CHANGES OF TY FUNG-WONG
AFTER MOVING BACK OVER WATER SEEM TO HAVE RECONVINCED MODEL
GUIDANCE ON LANDFALL BETWEEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN TAIWAN
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 60 AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE FAVORING
A MORE NORTHWESTERN TRACK. ONLY NAVGEM CONTINUES TO TRY AND REFLECT
A TRACK THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (ADJUSTED EASTWARD TO
COMPENSATE FOR NAVGEM) WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY SPREAD IS
WITHIN 25 KTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS AND HWRF
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO UNREALISTIC HOPES OF INTENSIFICATION AMIDST
STRONG MONSOON FLOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD SURGE. THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECTS INTENSITIES IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 60 REFLECTIVE OF A CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, DESPITE THE GFS AND HWRF PORTRAYALS.
AFTERWARD THE JTWC FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS ACCOUNTING FOR SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION DRIVEN BY
FRICTIONAL EFFECT OF TERRAIN INTERACTION AND IMPACTS OF CONTINUOUS
DRY AIR INTRUSION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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