WDPN32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.3N 119.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 192 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY)
32W REDEVELOPING AN ORGANIZED STRUCTURE WITH BUILDING DEEP
CONVECTION FROM THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. A WESTWARD TILT WITH
HEIGHT CONTINUES, AND THE LOW-LEVEL BANDING CAN BE FOUND PEEKING
THROUGH GAPS IN CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL BANDING
EVIDENT IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE
FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 092030Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 86 KTS AT 092030Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 70 KTS AT 092310Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 65 KTS AT 100020Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 32W WILL CURVE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AFTER CROSSING THE RIDGE AXIS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
ROUND THE RIDGE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AS THE VORTEX
BECOMES SHALLOW, TY 32W WILL SHIFT TO A NEARLY DUE EASTWARD TRACK
FROM TAU 96-120. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MODERATE
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AFTER TAU 12 AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 36, SHEAR WILL BECOME HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE AS TY 32W BEGINS TO TRACK UPSTREAM OF THE NORTHEAST
MONSOON WHILE INGESTING SUBSIDENT DRY AIR. AFTER SKIMMING NORTHERN
TAIWAN BETWEEN TAU 48-72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER
WATER BY TAU 96, LOSING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TY 32W
WILL HAVE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST AND HAS INCREASED
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS NOW 1320NM, WITH
GALWEM SPEEDING OFF INTO THE DISTANCE AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
LAGGING BEHIND. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATE-TERM TRACK FORECAST IS
LOW DUE TO THE ERRATIC SPREAD OF VORTEX TRACKERS WHICH SEEM TO
STRUGGLE TO FOLLOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT, BUT HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE
TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE CONFIDENCE FOLLOWS SUIT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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