WDPN32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 
022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.1N 121.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 101 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KTS

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 32W (FUNG-WONG) HAS MADE LANDFALL AS OF THE 12Z, WITH
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND OVER LUZON AS DEPICTED BY
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS
UNDERGONE SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS FACILITATED BY
TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG AROUND THE
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REFLECTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS TY FUNG-WONG WILL NOW CONTEND WITH DRY AIR
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM AS IT ATTEMPTS TO RECONSOLIDATE. ADDITIONAL
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS WARM (28 C TO 29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 117 KTS AT 091036Z
   CIMSS ADT: 122 KTS AT 091140Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 106 KTS AT 091140Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 118 KTS AT 091036Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 99 KTS AT 091200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY FUNG-WONG WILL NOW TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS LUZON AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) OVER THE LINGAYEN
GULF. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS CHIP
AWAY AT THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER
THE SCS, THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN, WHILE THE STR
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BUILD AND EVENTUALLY ASSUME PRIMARY
STEERING ROLE. AS A RESULT TY 32W WILL ROUND THE AXIS OF THE LATTER
OF THE DISCUSSED RIDGES, TURNING INITIALLY NORTHWARD, AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD TAIWAN. ALONG THE WAY DRY AIR WILL BECOME
ENTRAINED IN THE VORTEX ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TY 32W. LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN IS NOW
DEPICTED NORTH OF XIANXI, BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96. AFTERWARDS THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND BEFORE
MOVING BACK OVER WATER IN THE EAST CHINA SEA. DISSIPATION IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK SPREAD IS AROUND 90 NM AT TAU 72 AND
INCREASES UP TO 300 NM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO REFLECT THE PATH FOR THE SYSTEM AFTER
TRACKING ACROSS TAIWAN. THE NORTHEASTWARD CURVE TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER TAU 36. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW SHYING AWAY FROM THE MAIN PART OF THE
TAIWAN LANDMASS AND INSTEAD REFLECT THE SYSTEM TRANSITING THROUGH
THE TAIWAN STRAIT BEFORE CROSSING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
TAIWAN. GFS AND UKMO REFLECT SMALLER CHANGES TO THE TRACK DURING
THE MOST RECENT RUNS, WITH LANDFALL DEPICTED OVER THE WESTERN CENTER
OF THE ISLAND AFTER TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPREAD UP TO 45 KNOTS WITH
HAFS-A, GFS, AND HWRF STILL DEPICTING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, LIKELY
CAUSED BY AN INCREASE IN FORECAST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN EXPECTED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE JTWC FORECAST
REFLECTS INTENSITIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU
72 AND SLIGHTLY LOWER INTENSITIES THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS 
ASSESSING DISSIPATION THE CIRCULATION EARLIER IN THE FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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