WDPN32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.0N 124.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 224 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 18 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL CLOUD
BANDS WITHIN THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE OF TYPHOON (TY) 32W. INTERACTION
WITH CATANDUANES ISLAND HAS DISRUPTED THE BANDING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
REMAINS EXPANSIVE AND FAVORABLE WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS
MARGINALLY HIGH AT APPROXIMATELY 20KTS (BASED ON CIMSS ANALYSIS).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
110 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 082132Z RCM-3
SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR IMAGE HIGHLIGHTING WIND SPEEDS OF
APPROXIMATELY 110KTS, WHICH IS SUPPLEMENTED BY THE AGENCY FIXES
LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 129 KTS AT 082217Z
   CIMSS ADT: 146 KTS AT 082030Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 127 KTS AT 082030Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 114 KTS AT 082217Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 123 KTS AT 082310Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 32W WILL REMAIN IN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
DRIVING THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. BETWEEN TAU
36-72, TY 32W WILL CURVE NORTHEASTWARD. LANDFALL ON MAINLAND TAIWAN
WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO TAU 96, AND TY 32W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION WITH
THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINES. TY 32W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AFTER
TRACKING OVER NORTHERN LUZON BETWEEN TAU 12-24. HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST MONSOON WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THE SYSTEM AS TY 32W TRACKS UPSTREAM OF THE COLD SURGE FLOW. TY 32W
WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER LAND AT TAU 96 DUE TO THE ADDED
TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION. AFTER BECOMING SHALLOW AND FURTHER
WEAKENED BY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF TAIWAN, AND CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVER WATER AT TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXEMPTION OF THE OUTLIER OF GALWEM, IN THE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD WITH ONLY A 165NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120.
HOWEVER, THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS MASSIVE, REACHING 580. AS A
RESULT, THE LATE-TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LARGE
VARIATION IN THE TRACK SPEEDS. CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS, BUT BEGINS TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY BY TAU 48 AND
BECOME IRREGULAR WITH WEAKENING TRENDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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