WDPN32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.7N 126.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 330 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 47 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON
(TY) 32W PERSISTING AGAINST HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ABOVE
20KTS. AS A RESULT, THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND SLIGHTLY
ASYMMETRIC, BUT THE EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW FAVORABLY COUNTERS THE SHEAR
AND HAS ALLOWED FOR REINTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASYMMETRIC EYE FEATURE
AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 081640Z NOAA-20 ATMS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTING
AN UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY FIXES LISTED
BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 120 KTS AT 081731Z
   CIMSS ADT: 146 KTS AT 081730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 127 KTS AT 081730Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 110 KTS AT 081830Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 32W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, PASSING OVER LUZON, FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE
REMAINING IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO RIDGES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36, ALLOWING TY 32W TO GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
CURVE TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BY TAU 72 THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SYSTEM WILL STAGNATE IN A
CONTINUED MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
BEFORE WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON AT TAU 24.
AFTER TY 32W PASSES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS UPSTREAM OF THE NORTHEAST
MONSOON WHILE INGESTING SUBSIDENT CONTINENTAL DRY AIR, CONTINUING
THE WEAKENING TREND. LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF TAIWAN
IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO TAU 96 IS ANTICIPATED TO DISRUPT THE CORE OF
THE CIRCULATION, INITIATING DISSIPATION OVER LAND. DISSIPATION WILL
CONTINUE OVER WATER AT TAU 120 WHEN THE CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED TO
30KTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXEMPTION OF THE OUTLIER OF NAVGEM, IN THE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD WITH ONLY A 100NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120.
HOWEVER, THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS MASSIVE, REACHING 530NM. AS A
RESULT, THE LATE-TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LARGE
VARIATION IN THE TRACK SPEEDS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS, BUT BEGINS TO SPREAD AND BECOME
IRREGULAR WITH WEAKENING TRENDS. HAFS-A WEAKENS THE SLOWEST, WHILE
COAMPS-TC SHOWS THE STRONGEST AND SWIFTEST RATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN