WDPN32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 
018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.3N 128.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 421 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 25 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 32W (FUNG-WONG) CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED AND STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS
DEPICTED BY ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 C TO 30 C) OFFSET BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (25-30 KTS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY AND AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 97 KTS AT 080942Z
   CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 081130Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 98 KTS AT 081130Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 100 KTS AT 081038Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 98 KTS AT 081200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 32W WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TAU 48. HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS AN OBSTACLE AS THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ATTEMPT HIGHER INTENSITIES BEFORE LANDFALL
OVER LUZON. LANDFALL IS FORECAST SOUTH OF CASIGURAN, PHILIPPINES
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, THE CIRCULATION WILL TRACK
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WHERE DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN AND SLOW TY FUNG-WONG DRAMATICALLY. AROUND
TAU 60, A WEAKER STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN,
ALLOWING THE STR TO THE EAST TO DOMINATE THE STEERING AND RESULT IN
TY 32W TO BEGIN RECURVING ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD TAIWAN.
LANDFALL IS FORECASTED BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120 OVER SOUTHWESTERN
TAIWAN AND TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LANDMASS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 75
NM THROUGH TAU 36. AFTERWARDS SPREAD INCREASES UP TO 200 NM THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A GROUPING LED BY GFS FORECASTS A
NORTHEAST CURVE THAT SCRAPES THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA. MEANWHILE
A LARGER GROUP LED BY ECMWF STILL DEPICTS LANDFALL OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF TAIWAN AND THEN PUSHES THE SYSTEM ACROSS
CENTRAL TAIWAN. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING A TRACK OVER
CENTRAL TAIWAN IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SPREAD REMAINS AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS
SPEEDS IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS ACCOUNTING FOR LANDFALL OVER LUZON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN