WDPN32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 
017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.0N 130.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 381 NM NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 32W (FUNG-WONG) CAN BE SEEN STRENGTHENING AND
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS VIA ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALL AROUND THE RAGGED EYE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AS STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 C TO 30 C) ARE BALANCED BY STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR IMAGERY, A 080411Z AMSR2 PASS,
AND AGENCY FIXES BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AMSR2 DATA, OBJECTIVE AIDS, AND AGENCY
ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 94 KTS AT 080458Z
   CIMSS ADT: 99 KTS AT 080540Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 90 KTS AT 080540Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 87 KTS AT 080650Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 100 KTS AT 080640Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY FUNG-WONG WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 WITH ONLY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SLOWING
DOWN ITS INTENSIFICATION PROCESS AS IT APPROACHES LUZON AND MAKES
LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF CASIGURAN, PHILIPPINES BETWEEN TAU 24 AND
TAU 36. POST LANDFALL A WEAKENED CIRCULATION WILL ENTER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. TY FUNG-WONG WILL WEAKEN AND SLOW DRAMATICALLY AS COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ENCOUNTERED ALONG WITH DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE FLOW, AND CONSISTENTLY HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. AROUND TAU 72, A WEAKER STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN, ALLOWING THE STR TO THE EAST TO DOMINATE THE
STEERING AND RESULT IN TY 32W TO BEGIN RECURVING ALONG ITS WESTERN
PERIPHERY. AS TY FUNG-WONG WEAKENS ON ITS NORTHEASTWARD JOURNEY,
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF TAIWAN AND TRACK THROUGH THE CENTER
OF THE ISLAND. THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE CENTER OF
THE CIRCULATION PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN AFTER TAU
120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
48 WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 70 NM. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
KEEPS A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
EASTERN COAST OF LUZON MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF CASIGURAN,
PHILIPPINES. AFTERWARDS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A CURVE BACK
TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT DISAGREEMENTS ARE EVIDENT ON HOW MUCH THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOW OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL
BE STEERED. GFS TRIES TO PUSH TY FUNG-WONG THROUGH THE TAIWAN
STRAIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA WHILE NAVGEM AND UKMO
DEPICT THE SYSTEM PUSHING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
TAIWAN. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH AMOUNTS TO A TRACK OVER
CENTRAL TAIWAN AROUND TAU 120 MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF
DEPICTION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPREAD UPWARDS OF 40 KNOTS. THE
JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS SPEEDS IN LINE WITH MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS PRIOR TO AND AFTER LANDFALL OVER
LUZON. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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