WDPN32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.5N 132.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 305 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 17 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WITH CYCLICAL BANDING
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS OBSCURED, MAKING IDENTIFYING
THE POSITION A CHALLENGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS EXPANSIVE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH A POINT SOURCE ALOFT, FURTHER ENCOURAGING
INTENSIFICATION. THE IMPROVED DEVELOPMENT IS REPRESENTED BY A
LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE DEPICTED IN A DMSP F-16 SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE
AT 072155Z. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE BROAD AND OBSCURED NATURE OF THE LLCC IN ANIMATED EIR.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 082052Z RCM-1 SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR IMAGE DEPICTING
SUSTAINED WIND OF 80KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A PARTIAL 082052Z RCM-1 SYNTHETIC
APERTURE RADAR IMAGE AND OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 70 KTS AT 072158Z
   CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 072030Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 63 KTS AT 072030Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 80 KTS AT 072157Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 82 KTS AT 072300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 32W WILL CONTINUE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE REMAINING IN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL WEAKEN
AFTER TAU 48, ALLOWING TY 32W TO CURVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. BETWEEN TAU 72-96, THE SYSTEM
WILL CURVE FROM A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THAT
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALLOWING TY 32W TO
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115KTS. AFTER TAU 24, THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME CONVERGENT AND NO LONGER SUPPORTIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. LANDFALL ON LUZON BETWEEN TAU 36-48 WILL FURTHER
THE RATE OF WEAKENING WHILE ALSO PUTTING TY 32W DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SUBSIDENT AND DRY NORTHEAST MONSOONAL FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ERODE AND WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 96. INTERACTION
WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF TAIWAN WILL INCREASE THE RATE OF WEAKENING,
LEAVING TY 32W DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST BUT BEGINS TO SPREAD AFTER TAU
72 WHEN TY 32W MARKS THE TURN TO CURVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD DIFFERS BY 446NM, WITH GEFS TRACKING SLOWEST AND
ECMWF TRACKING FASTEST. THERE IS VARIABILITY AS WELL IF THE SYSTEM
MAKES LANDFALL ON TAIWAN IN THE LATE-TERM FORECAST. GFS AND NAVGEM,
FOR EXAMPLE, DO NOT INDICATE LANDFALL ON TAIWAN WHILE ECMWF DOES.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IN THE LATE-TERM IS HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE
TRACK AS A RESULT, AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT LATE
TERM TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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