WDPN32 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 11.4N 137.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 115 NM NORTH OF YAP MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS BANDS OF INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS STRIATIONS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS OBSCURED BY THE DEEP CONVECTION. A 062103Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A STILL BROAD, BUT CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 062330Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON 072044Z RCM-1 SAR WINDSPEED DATA, CORROBORATED BY THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY FIXES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 072044Z RCM-1 SAR WINDSPEED DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 47 KTS AT 062300Z CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 070100Z CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 070100Z CIMSS D-MINT: 41 KTS AT 062105Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 60 KTS AT 070100Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 32W (FUNG-WONG) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS, STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED IN LUZON BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, FOLLOWED BY REEMERGENCE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. AT APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TIME AS 32W REEMERGES OVER WATER, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL WEAKEN TO THE NORTH AND BUILD TO THE EAST, CAUSING 32W TO TURN AND MOVE NORTHWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, ONGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES A PEAK OF 115 KTS AT TAU 48. FOLLOWING TAU 48, 32W WILL ENCOUNTER HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-35 KTS), WHICH SHOULD INTERRUPT THE INTENSIFICATION TREND AND POTENTIALLY WEAKEN THE STORM SLIGHTLY, PRIOR TO LANDFALL. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TERRAIN INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN FUNG-WONG AS IT PASSES ACROSS LUZON. THEREAFTER, 32W WILL REEMERGE INTO A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, CHARACTERIZED BY A DRIER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERLY SURGE FLOW THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THIS DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WRAP INTO THE CORE, ULTIMATELY LEADING TO DISSIPATION BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH ALL RELIABLE MODELS PREDICTING LANDFALL IN CENTRAL LUZON. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE NORTHWARD TURN IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE JTWC FORECAST. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72- 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 32W WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK AT TAU 48 AND WEAKEN THEREAFTER, THOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REGARDING THE PEAK INTENSITY AND THE RATE OF WEAKENING IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY MEAN AND PREVIOUS FORECAST, ASSESSED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN