WDPN32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING 
NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.7N 138.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 78 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BANDS OF
DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER, OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). 
WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST. TROPICAL 
STORM (TS) 32W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, 
THOUGH A 061645Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL BROAD AND SLIGHTLY DISPLACED FROM 
THE TO UPPER LEVEL CENTER, INDICATING SOME TILT WITH HEIGHT. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED 061645Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 061730Z PGTW 
SATELLITE FIX ON HIMAWARI GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY 
OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK 
FIXES AND THE CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: CONCURRENT STEERING BETWEEN THE
SOUTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN STR CENTERED OVER
THE TAIWAN STRAIT

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 061840Z
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 061900Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 061900Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 40 KTS AT 061648Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 46 KTS AT 061900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 32W (FUNG-WONG) IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 96 WHILE IT REMAINS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH, WITH LANDFALL 
IN NORTHERN LUZON ANTICIPATED BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. 32W IS THEN 
FORECAST TO REEMERGE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. 
AROUND THE SAME TIME, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED 
TO BREAK DOWN, ALLOWING 32W TO CURVE TO POLEWARD. 32W WILL MAINTAIN A 
NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT 
APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS. REGARDING INTENSITY, 32W IS FORECAST TO 
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEGINNING IMMINENTLY AND REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN 
THE 
WESTERN PHILIPPINE SEA. A PEAK INTENSITY ABOVE 105 KTS MAY 
OCCUR AROUND TAU 60, WHICH CANNOT BE REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT 
FORECAST 
POINTS. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 SHOULD 
CAP INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN LUZON. AFTER REEMERGING INTO 
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, 32W WILL BE MET WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR 
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERLY SURGE FLOW THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE 
DRY AIR WILL STEADILY ENTRAIN INTO THE CORE AND SMOTHER 32W, 
WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT 32W WILL CONTINUE ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH
LANDFALL IN LUZON NEAR CASIGURAN. NOTABLE OUTLIERS ARE NAVGEM AND
JGSM, WHICH KEEP 32W FARTHER NORTH, INDICATING LANDFALL OVER THE 
NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED IN 
CONCURRENCE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THE BULK OF INDIVIDUAL 
CONSENSUS MEMBERS, AND THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST WITH OVERALL MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 32W WILL 
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48-60 AND WEAKEN THEREAFTER, THOUGH 
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE PEAK INTENSITY AND  
THE RATE OF WEAKENING IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY MEAN 
AND PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND IS ASSESSED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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