WDPN32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING 
NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.2N 139.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 98 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT IS MORE TIGHTLY
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER COMPARED TO 6 HOURS AGO. THE CIRCULATION
REMAINS BROAD, BUT IS CERTAINLY SHOWING SIGNS OF CONSOLIDATION. A
061121Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SWATH OF 35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES WITH A TIGHTENING INNER CORE.
THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BOTH PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE. AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND THE
CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE ARE ANALYZED TO BE OVERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE
BANDING SURROUNDING THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 32W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY HINDRANCE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 061121Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 061200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 41 KTS AT 061200Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 35 KTS AT 061200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 32W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36. NEAR TAU 36, TRACK SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A SEPARATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORMS TO THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, TIGHTENING THE STEERING
GRADIENT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TAU 72 AS 32W APPROACHES THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON.
LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR JUST AFTER TAU 72, SOUTH OF
CASIGURAN, WITHIN THE AURORA PROVINCE. 32W WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS
LUZON AND EMERGE WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 84. AFTERWARD,
THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A NORTHWARD TURN TOWARD TAIWAN AS IT ROUNDS
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY,
32W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 TO AROUND 100
KTS. THE LARGE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND
FORM DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
CONTINUOUS RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL 
SUPPORT THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI). NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 48 TO AROUND 20 KTS, CAUSING 
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND TO SLOW. HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION 
THROUGH LANDFALL IS STILL LIKELY. CURRENTLY, AN INTENSITY OF 115 KTS 
IS FORECAST FOR THE TIME OF LANDFALL. 32W WILL THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN 
DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION AS IT CROSSES LUZON. ONCE THE VORTEX 
EMERGES BACK OVER WATER, REDEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL BE
HINDERED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 145 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 AND A 185
NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120. NAVGEM AND JGSM ARE THE TWO
OUTLIERS, WHICH TRACK THE VORTEX MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE DOES, NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
(SLIGHTLY OFFSET TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OUTLIERS) WITH OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH MODELS
AGREEING ON INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. PEAK INTENSITIES RANGE
FROM 100 KTS (HAFS-A) TO 145 KTS (COAMPS-TC). MODELS THEN AGREE ON
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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