WDPN32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING 
NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 9.7N 140.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 148 NM EAST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) WITH A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION AND EXPANSIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG ALL QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO FAIL TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER, AND IS
LIKELY THE CAUSE OF THE RATHER GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IN INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A PARTIAL 060431Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALED AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDING IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2 MICROWAVE
IMAGE AND ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF THE AGENCY DVORAK
FIXES AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 32W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 37 KTS AT 060520Z
   CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 060600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 060600Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 060432Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 32 KTS AT 060600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 32W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36. NEAR TAU 36, TRACK SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A SEPARATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORMS TO THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, TIGHTENING THE STEERING
GRADIENT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TAU 72 AS 32W APPROACHES THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON.
LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 84, SOUTH OF CASIGURAN,
WITHIN THE AURORA PROVINCE. 32W WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS LUZON AND
EMERGE WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
TAKE A NORTHWARD TURN TOWARD TAIWAN AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 32W IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 TO AROUND 100 KTS. THE LARGE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND FORM DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 48 TO AROUND
20 KTS, CAUSING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND TO SLOW. HOWEVER,
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH LANDFALL IS STILL LIKELY. CURRENTLY, AN
INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS FORECAST FOR THE TIME OF LANDFALL. 32W WILL
THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION AS IT CROSSES LUZON.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 170 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72, INCREASING TO
290 NM AT TAU 120 WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. OVERALL, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH
MULTIPLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS TRIGGERING THIS MODEL RUN. ALL
MODELS AGREE ON INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A RANGE OF
95-125 KTS AT TAU 72 (HAFS-A BEING THE WEAKEST AND COAMPS-TC BEING
THE STRONGEST). THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT TAU 72. MODELS
THEN AGREE ON WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND THE JTWC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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