WDPN32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING 
NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.2N 140.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 120 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) IS BEGINNING TO COOK, SHOWING STEADY
CONSOLIDATION AND DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ENTERED THE DIURNAL MINIMUM
PERIOD. ANIMATED VISUAL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME PATCHINESS IN THE CENTER
OF THE STORM BUT A GENERAL TREND TOWARD CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TIGHTENING 
AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE CORE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON UNANIMOUS T2.5 DVORAKS FROM KNES RJTD AND PGTW. THE SYSTEM
IS DRIFTING A LITTLE MORE POLEWARD BUT IS STILL MOVING ALONG A
ROUGHLY NORTHWESTARD BEARING. A WEAKENS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EXISTS BETWEEN THE 130TH AND 140TH
MERIDIAN, ALLOWING A MORE POLEWARD DRIFT. AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN PASSAGE OF THE TAIWAN STRAIT IS EXTENDING EASTWARD
ALONG THE 20TH LATITUDE AND WILL SOON FLATTEN THE TRACK OUT. WATER
VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT IN SYSTEM OUTFLOW
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE VIGOROUS DEEPENING IN THE SHORT AND
MEDIUM TERM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 060016Z ASCAT PASS ALLOWED FOR
ADJUSTMENT OF THE 35KT RADII OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED IN A H500 594 ANTICYCLONE QSTNRY 
NEAR 25N 167E.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 052030Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 052030Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 26 KTS AT 060100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM
FUNG-WONG IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND ALLOWS FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AT A MINIMUM, THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY AT LEAST AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE (ONE 'T' NUMBER
PER DAY) ALL THE WAY THROUGH LANDFALL OVER NORTHEAST LUZON. LOW
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) AND HIGH DIFFLUENCE EXIST ALONG TRACK
THROUGH THE 130TH MERIDIAN, AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THAT, THE VWS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADE THE SYSTEM
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. A STRIKE INTENSITY AROUND 100KT IS ENTIRELY
FEASIBLE AT THIS POINT. RECENT TRACK GUIDANCE FOCUSES THE STRIKE
POINT NORTH OF CASIGURAN BUT WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST TIP OF
LUZON, WITH AN EXIT POINT INTO THE WEST PHILIPPINE SEA SOMEWHERE
NEAR VIGAN.  THE RAPID SPEED OF ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO STAY VIGOROUS ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
RE-GROUP RAPIDLY ONCE IT ENTERS THE WEST PHILIPPINE SEA. IN THE
VERY EXTENDED RANGE, JUST AFTER TAU 120 THE SYSTEM WILL ROLL OVER
TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEGIN AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.    

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE WIDER SPREAD THAN
USUAL FOR A WEST-RUNNER.  THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HEDGES THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS EQUATORWARD TOWARDS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
AND SOME OF THE NEWER AI TRACKERS, WHICH HAVE HAD A HOT HAND DURING
THE PAST THREE MONTHS.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES PEAK INTENSITY
NEAR 081200Z. THE HAFS-A GUIDANCE IS LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS WITH THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST SPLITTING THE
DIFFERENCE, BUT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO DOES REMAIN A
REALISTIC POSSIBILITY. WE ARE HOLDING FIRE ON THAT SCENARIO UNTIL
CORE CONVECTION BECOMES FULLY ESTABLISHED. UNTIL THEN, SOME OF THE
RI SIGNALS MAY BE FALSE POSITIVES. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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