WDPN32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (THIRTYTWO) 
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 9.4N 140.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 166 NM EAST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W HAS SHOWN MODERATE CONSOLIDATION DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  A 051828Z SSMIS 37V IMAGE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CURVED BANDING BUT THE CENTER, ALTHOUGH TIGHTENING,
REMAINS BROAD AND DIFFUSE. NONETHELESS, SCATTEROMETRY OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS HAS GIVEN A CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT THAT THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM HAS MADE THE EXPECTED MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THERE
HAVE BEEN THREE CONSECUTIVE FIXES ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEARING.
THE SYSTEM IS EXITING THE DIURNAL MAX CYCLE AND THUS THE RATE OF
CONSOLIDATION MAY SLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE SUN GOES
DOWN OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.  A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE MORE POLEWARD MOVEMENT THAN IS TYPICAL FOR
A SYSTEM IN THE WEST-RUNNER ZONE, AS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE IS TOO FAR SEPARATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO
PROVIDE A FORCEFUL PUSH TO THE WEST. DURING THE TIME BETWEEN THE
18Z ANALYSIS AND THE PRODUCTION OF THIS FORECAST, THE JMA NAMED THE
SYSTEM FUNG-WONG AND UPGRADED THE INTENSITY.  THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE SYSTEM ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEEPENING, SHOWING ALMOST
RADIAL OUTFLOW.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF DRY AIR
UPSTREAM, TD 32W IS MANAGING TO FIGHT IT OFF AND INSULATE ITSELF
FROM THE UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A WEAK PUSH TOWARDS THE WEST FROM THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS
ANCHORED IN A H500 594 ANTICYCLONE QSTNRY NEAR 25N 167E.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 051730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 051730Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 24 KTS AT 051828Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 051930Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 32W WILL SOON CROSS THE THRESHOLD TO
TROPICAL STORM FUNG-WONG STRENGTH AS IT ENTERS A PHASE OF STEADY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEARING. IT WILL NOT FOLLOW
THE TRACK OF TY 31W THROUGH THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES BUT WILL RATHER
HEAD FOR THE AURORA REGION OF NORTHEASTERN LUZON. THE SYSTEM WILL
REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 30 HOURS AND MOVE INTO TRIPLE
DIGITS NEAR THE 130TH MERIDIAN.  IT WILL STRIKE THE COAST WELL
ABOVE TYPHOON STRENGTH, ALTHOUGH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN
THE FINAL 12 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM DOWN
BELOW 100 KTS.  IN THE EXTREME LONG-RANGE, ONCE CROSSING LUZON AND
MOVING INTO WESTERN AREA OF THE TAIWAN STRAIGHT, FUNG-WONG IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL OVER TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL 
TRANSITION NEAR TAIWAN. IN THE NEAR-TERM, GALE FORCE WINDFIELDS ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM COME PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO YAP.  
THE UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION AT OR JUST ABOVE A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AND RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION REMAINS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS SURPRISINGLY WIDE FOR A
WEST-RUNNER BUT SHOULD CONGEAL AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. THE JTWC
FORECAST RUNS EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING
SOME OF THE NEW AI TRACKERS AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. HAFS-A AND
OTHER COUPLED MODELS BACKED DOWN ON PEAK INTENSITY ON THE LAST RUN
AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS HIGHER THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS.
ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A SYSTEM PEAK BETWEEN THE 72 AND
96 HOUR PERIOD.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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