WDPN32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (THIRTYTWO) 
WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 8.6N 142.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 110 NM NORTHWEST OF WOLEAI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 32W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO
ORGANIZE WITH DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION AS DEPICTED ON ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 C
TO 30 C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND MODERATE
OUTFLOW, THOUGH THESE FACTORS ARE HINDERED SOMEWHAT BY DRY AIR TO
THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON EIR IMAGERY, AGENCY FIXES, AND A PARTIAL 051226Z METOP-C
ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON OBJECTIVE AID ESTIMATES AND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED 051226Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 051140Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 051140Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 25 KTS AT 050806Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 051310Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 32W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TRANSITING FURTHER NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR CONSIDERABLE DEVELOPMENT AS THE CIRCULATION
APPROACHES THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. THE FORECASTED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAGNITUDES. MAXIMUM
INTENSITIES OF 110 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA
AROUND TAU 72. AFTERWARDS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO BEGINNING OF A WEAKENING TREND AS
THE CENTER PASSES OVER LUZON BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120. WEAKENING
WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY, WHILE THE SYSTEM TRANSITS OVER LAND,
RESULTING IN EXPECTED INTENSITY OF 65 KTS. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SPREAD WITH NAVGEM
DEPICTING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND COAMPS-TC PUSHING THE
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OVER LUZON. CROSS TRACK SPREAD IS OVER 200 NM
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT ALL MODELS AGREE ON A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE JTWC FORECASTED TRACK IS
PLACED JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD
OF 25 KTS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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