WDPN32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (THIRTYTWO) 
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 8.5N 143.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 77 NM WEST OF FARAULEP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 32W AS A BROAD CIRCULATION STILL TRYING TO GAIN
SOME ORGANIZATION. POCKETS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN FLARING
AT THE EDGES OF ALL QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 C
TO 30 C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND MODERATE
OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OBJECTIVE AID
ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 32 KTS AT 050412Z
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 050530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 050530Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 21 KTS AT 050348Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 24 KTS AT 050710Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 32W WILL GET A SLOW START OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF WHILE BEING
STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS ARE PRIME
FOR THE CIRCULATION TO UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES WITH
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAGNITUDES. MAXIMUM INTENSITIES OF AROUND 115
KTS ARE FORECAST JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120.
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE
PHILIPPINE LANDMASS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY OUT OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SPREAD WITH A 100 NM
CROSS TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36. ECMWF FAVORS FURTHER MOVEMENT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE GFS PUSHES THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD TOWARD
THE PHILIPPINES. THE JTWC FORECASTED TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY SPREAD IS
ALSO RELATIVELY HIGH AMONG THE MODELS WITH HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC
DEPICTING MAX INTENSITIES OF 120+ KTS WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO
REFLECT A MAX INTENSITY OF 100 KTS. THE JTWC FORECASTED INTENSITY
LIES SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ACCOUNTING FOR THE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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