WDIO31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA) WARNING 
NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.9N 82.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 537 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA) WITH VIGOROUS BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD
WITH SOME AREAS MEASURING COLDER THAN -90 C. A 281218Z F17 SSMIS 91
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TIGHTLY WRAPPING
INTO THE ASSESSED CENTER FROM THE SOUTH AND DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET
ABOUT 54 NM TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 03B
IS IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY HIGH (30-35 KTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR TO THE EAST.  THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MENTIONED SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED
BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 45 KTS AT 281200Z
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 281200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 281200Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 52 KTS AT 281200Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 52 KTS AT 281200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30-35 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR IN AROUND 6 HOURS, WITHIN THE KONASEEMA DISTRICT OF INDIA.
03B WILL THEN QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND DUE TO INCREASING
TERRAIN INTERACTION. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NO LATER THAN
TAU 24 AS THE REMNANT VORTEX CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN INDIA.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 63 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH ALL 
MODELS DEPICTING WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND 
DISSIPATION BY TAU 24.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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