WDIO31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA) WARNING 
NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.2N 82.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 553 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA) WITH A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE VORTEX WITH CLOUD TOPS
MEASURING COLDER THAN -90 C IN SOME AREAS. A 280323Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE REVEALED A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
(40-45 KTS) PRIMARILY LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 03B IS IN A MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET
BY HIGH (30-35 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SAME ASCAT IMAGE. ADDITIONALLY,
THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
LISTED BELOW FURTHER SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 280323Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 280330Z
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 280600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 280600Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 44 KTS AT 280357Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 46 KTS AT 280600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30-35 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 03B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR IN AROUND 12 HOURS, WITHIN THE KONASEEMA DISTRICT OF INDIA.
03B WILL THEN QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND DUE TO INCREASING
TERRAIN INTERACTION. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NO LATER THAN
TAU 24 AS THE REMNANT VORTEX CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN INDIA.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 52 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AND MINIMAL ALONG-TRACK
SPREAD AT TAU 24. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS DEPICTING
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 24.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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