WDIO31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA) WARNING NR 
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.5N 83.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 572 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST THAT HAS FORMED, OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) DESPITE HIGH (30-35 KTS) EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. TROPICAL CYCLONE 
(TC) 03B HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS, THOUGH THE 
ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE DUE TO THE VWS AND 
INCREASINGLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH 
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW FIX POSITION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 
272112Z SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETER DATA, WHICH SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF 45 
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE AND 272112Z SCATTEROMETER DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 272029Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 280000Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 272000Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 39 KTS AT 271939Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 46 KTS AT 280000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: WEAK MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B (MONTHA) IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
IT REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO ITS
NORTHEAST. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOUTHWEST OF
VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA BETWEEN TAU 12-24. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS 03B APPROACHES LAND, WITH VWS REMAINING
ABOVE 30KTS AND A PATCH OF DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CORE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. PRIOR TO LANDFALL, MONTHA WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TO 40 KTS AT TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH 
LAND, WITH DISSIPATION OVER LAND FORECAST TO OCCUR PRIOR TO TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT 03B WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU
12-24, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 03B WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL, WITH ALL RELIABLE MODELS PREDICTING
DISSIPATION BY TAU 24.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN