WDIO31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA) WARNING 
NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.2N 83.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 576 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST BY 30-35 KTS OF EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DESPITE THE HIGH VWS, TROPICAL CYCLONE 
(TC) 03B HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, FUELED BY 
WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. A 
271430Z METOP-B ASCAT BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A SWATH OF 45KTS UNDER 
THE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED 271430Z 
ASCAT DATA, SUPPORTED BY THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED EIR. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON THE 1430Z ASCAT DATA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 271430Z METOP-B ASCAT DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 271800Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 271800Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 36 KTS AT 271648Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 271800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: WEAK MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B (MONTHA) WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT 
REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO ITS NORTHEAST. 
LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 24, SOUTHWEST OF 
VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY 
UNFAVORABLE AS 03B APPROACHES LAND, WITH VWS REMAINING ABOVE 30KTS 
AND DRY AIR ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. UNDETERRED BY THE DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS, 03B WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 45 KTS THROUGH 
LANDFALL. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, MONTHA WILL STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL 
DISSIPATION OVER LAND AROUND TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT 03B WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED IN
CONCURRENCE WITH THE BULK OF INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS AND THE MULTI-MODEL
TRACK CONSENSUS. INTENSITY AIDS ARE ALSO IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
03B WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 45 KTS THROUGH TAU 12, THEN WEAKEN
STEADILY ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL PRIOR TO TAU 24. AS A RESULT, THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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